NAFTA-not fails to excite markets

NAFTA or a lack of it was not on the minds of traders Monday, at least when it came to grains and oilseeds. It likely did fuel some fire under lean hogs and feeder cattle, as those posted positive results on the day. And despite a lack of North American trade deal and its potential death, as threatened by American President Donald Trump, the Canadian dollar added ground, finishing the day at 77.16 US cents.

The stronger dollar and continued Chinese trade uncertainty kept negative pressure on soybeans on Chicago and these translated into lower prices on canola.

November canola continued its losses from last week, falling to C$492.90 per tonne, down $4.20 on the day. Often United States soybean oil markets will help to support canola, but while those were up slightly, they failed to give canola any help. Cash-canola at elevators was off in a range from $3.23 to the futures cut of $4.20 Monday. From a low of $446.85 in the Peace to a high of $464.22 in southern Alberta, and the mid to high $450s across the rest of the Prairies the oilseed has been losing ground for two weeks in both cash and futures.

Spring wheat took a beating on Canadian cash markets, according to Alberta Wheat’s PDQ, dropping from $6.21 to a high of $7.67 per tonne over the day. Prices were in a range from $225 to $251 per tonne.

U.S. subsidies for soybeans, hurt by Chinese trade fights, could reach US$3.6 billion, of a $4.7 billion total, said the USDA today, further entrenching that position and softening North American oilseed prices.

Despite EU Science and Knowledge Service MARS projecting even further drops in crop yields for the region, wheat fell again on Chicago markets.

All wheat was down from the MARS July report, with durum fairing better than others. Rapeseed was off as well. As continued drought leaves the region with a smaller harvest than suspected a month earlier. Not all parts of Europe were suffering, as wetter than average conditions were experienced in the Iberian Peninsula, southern France, the Balkans, with eastern Poland and Romania. But most of those crops are off, or nearly so, so yield improvement didn’t happen, however some grade losses did. The EU’s meteorological service projects continued warmer conditions for the next three months over most of the region.

All parts of Germany are now considered to be drought, said the report.

On Chicago corn and wheat felt the chill of soybeans and continued their downward move from last week.

 

Name / Contract High Low Last Change Settlement
Canola Nov 2018 (updated 1:50PM(CST) on 8/27/2018) 497.00 491.50 492.90 -4.20 492.90
Canola Jan 2019 (updated 1:52PM(CST) on 8/27/2018) 502.20 498.20 499.40 -4.40 499.40
Canola Mar 2019 (updated 1:51PM(CST) on 8/27/2018) 505.90 503.00 504.00 -4.10 504.00
Canola May 2019 (updated 1:51PM(CST) on 8/27/2018) 509.10 506.60 507.40 -3.90 507.40
Canola Jul 2019 (updated 1:51PM(CST) on 8/27/2018) 510.60 508.60 508.90 -3.60 508.90
Soybeans Sep 2018 840.00 824.75 835.50 -5.75 834.75
Soybeans Nov 2018 853.50 838.25 848.75 -5.75 848.25
Soybeans Jan 2019 866.50 851.75 862.25 -5.75 861.75
Soybeans Mar 2019 879.00 865.00 875.75 -4.75 875.00
Soybeans May 2019 891.00 876.50 886.75 -5.50 886.50
Soybeans Jul 2019 901.00 886.00 896.75 -4.50 896.25
Soybean Meal Sep 2018 312.00 304.50 306.20 -6.30 306.30
Soybean Meal Oct 2018 314.00 306.20 308.30 -6.00 308.10
Soybean Meal Dec 2018 316.00 308.10 310.80 -5.30 310.60
Soybean Oil Sep 2018 28.51 27.91 28.41 0.23 28.37
Soybean Oil Oct 2018 28.65 28.05 28.58 0.29 28.52
Soybean Oil Dec 2018 28.89 28.25 28.79 0.29 28.76
Corn Sep 2018 348.75 343.00 346.00 -2.50 346.75
Corn Dec 2018 363.25 357.50 361.00 -2.00 361.50
Corn Mar 2019 375.50 370.00 373.25 -2.00 374.00
Corn May 2019 382.75 377.50 380.75 -1.75 381.50
Corn Jul 2019 388.50 383.50 386.50 -1.75 387.25
Oats Sep 2018 263.50 247.50 247.25 -13.00 247.25
Oats Dec 2018 266.50 254.50 254.75 -9.00 254.75
Oats Mar 2019 268.00 260.00 259.75 -8.50 259.75
Oats May 2019 263.00 263.00 263.00 -8.75 263.00
Oats Jul 2019 265.75 265.75 265.75 -8.50 265.75
Wheat Sep 2018 513.75 499.00 501.00 -12.50 499.25
Wheat Dec 2018 536.00 521.75 524.00 -11.00 522.50
Wheat Mar 2019 558.25 545.75 548.00 -10.25 546.25
Wheat May 2019 569.75 558.00 560.25 -10.00 558.75
Wheat Jul 2019 565.00 553.50 555.75 -9.00 554.50
Spring Wheat Sep 2018 572.00 556.00 556.75 -15.00 556.75
Spring Wheat Dec 2018 590.00 577.50 578.75 -10.75 578.75
Spring Wheat Mar 2019 605.00 593.00 595.00 -10.25 595.00
Spring Wheat May 2019 611.75 602.25 604.00 -10.75 604.00
Spring Wheat Jul 2019 618.50 611.50 612.75 -7.75 612.75
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2018 518.75 500.75 502.50 -15.00 501.75
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2018 546.75 529.00 531.25 -14.00 530.00
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2019 569.50 552.75 555.00 -14.00 554.00
Hard Red Wheat May 2019 581.75 566.25 568.00 -13.50 567.50
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2019 578.25 565.75 567.50 -11.75 567.25
Live Cattle (P) Aug 2018 108.45 105.70 108.45 1.93 108.20
Live Cattle (P) Oct 2018 109.70 106.20 109.42 2.22 109.30
Live Cattle (P) Dec 2018 114.10 110.90 113.82 1.97 113.65
Feeder Cattle (P) Aug 2018 150.25 148.52 150.10 0.90 150.22
Feeder Cattle (P) Sep 2018 151.40 146.48 150.85 3.25 150.68
Feeder Cattle (P) Oct 2018 150.58 145.62 150.40 3.50 150.08
Lean Hogs (P) Oct 2018 54.78 51.68 54.78 3.36 54.78
Lean Hogs (P) Dec 2018 54.22 51.42 54.22 3.30 54.22
Lean Hogs (P) Feb 2019 64.70 62.02 64.35 2.77 64.30
Canadian Dollar Sep 2018 0.7724 0.7655 0.7718 0.0037 0.7716
Crude Oct 2018 68.97 68.34 68.93 0.41 68.87

 

 

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Michael Raine Saskatoon newsroom's recent articles

Comments

  • Monkeeworks

    Without NAFTA- the name is gone already, we will get up tomorrow, the sun will rise and we won’t see a bit of difference in our lives.

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