NAFTA-not fails to excite markets

NAFTA or a lack of it was not on the minds of traders Monday, at least when it came to grains and oilseeds. It likely did fuel some fire under lean hogs and feeder cattle, as those posted positive results on the day. And despite a lack of North American trade deal and its potential death, as threatened by American President Donald Trump, the Canadian dollar added ground, finishing the day at 77.16 US cents.

The stronger dollar and continued Chinese trade uncertainty kept negative pressure on soybeans on Chicago and these translated into lower prices on canola.

November canola continued its losses from last week, falling to C$492.90 per tonne, down $4.20 on the day. Often United States soybean oil markets will help to support canola, but while those were up slightly, they failed to give canola any help. Cash-canola at elevators was off in a range from $3.23 to the futures cut of $4.20 Monday. From a low of $446.85 in the Peace to a high of $464.22 in southern Alberta, and the mid to high $450s across the rest of the Prairies the oilseed has been losing ground for two weeks in both cash and futures.

Spring wheat took a beating on Canadian cash markets, according to Alberta Wheat’s PDQ, dropping from $6.21 to a high of $7.67 per tonne over the day. Prices were in a range from $225 to $251 per tonne.

U.S. subsidies for soybeans, hurt by Chinese trade fights, could reach US$3.6 billion, of a $4.7 billion total, said the USDA today, further entrenching that position and softening North American oilseed prices.

Despite EU Science and Knowledge Service MARS projecting even further drops in crop yields for the region, wheat fell again on Chicago markets.

All wheat was down from the MARS July report, with durum fairing better than others. Rapeseed was off as well. As continued drought leaves the region with a smaller harvest than suspected a month earlier. Not all parts of Europe were suffering, as wetter than average conditions were experienced in the Iberian Peninsula, southern France, the Balkans, with eastern Poland and Romania. But most of those crops are off, or nearly so, so yield improvement didn’t happen, however some grade losses did. The EU’s meteorological service projects continued warmer conditions for the next three months over most of the region.

All parts of Germany are now considered to be drought, said the report.

On Chicago corn and wheat felt the chill of soybeans and continued their downward move from last week.