One trader isn’t expecting much movement on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) corn and soybean markets until harvest starts in the United States Midwest.
“I’m looking (past) all the (information) that we see every day and hear. We wait until the combines roll, they tell you the truth,” said Scott Capinegro of Barrington Commodity Brokers in Chicago, Ill.
In the last week, CBOT markets have only moved slightly. The September soybean contract rose 0.0075 of a cent to settle at US$8.5825 per bushel on Aug. 21, while the September corn contract lost 0.09 of a cent to settle at US$3.5250 per bushel. According to Capinegro the market is currently in a “in a washy technical trade, back and forth.”
The ProFarmer crop tour reports so far are putting yield expectations right in line with the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates earlier this month.
Corn yields from the tour for Indiana are estimated at 182.3 bushels per acre, compared to the USDA’s estimate of 186.0 bushels per acre. Nebraska estimates are at 179.2 bushels per acre, versus the USDA’s estimate of 181.0 bushels per acre. While reports about the condition of the soybean crop in Nebraska are that it is above average and well above average in Indiana.
“(The ProFarmer tour estimates) don’t usually vary that much from the government, they may be a little bit lower than they are. I don’t think it’s going to be a true market mover,” Capinegro said.
Traders are also paying attention to trade talks, but it’s hard to know exactly what is happening. According to Capinegro, they don’t really know exactly if there has or hasn’t been any progress on the trade front.
Weather isn’t doing much to move the market either, according to Capinegro. But if there is an early frost that could have an effect on things.