Canola edges higher despite bearish StatsCan report

Canola futures edged higher Tuesday for a fifth straight session, supported by crusher buying and slowing farmer sales, traders said.

Rain in areas across the Prairies is stalling harvest. There was snow northwest of Edmonton.

Canola’s mild strength today did not come from soybeans, which ended the day a little lower.

STATISTICS CANADA

There was also bearish news from Statistics Canada.

A StatsCan report based in part on satellite and climate data put Canada’s 2017 canola crop at 19.7 million tonnes, or 1.5 million tonnes more than the government’s Aug. 31 estimate of 18.2 million tonnes, based on a farmer survey.

The all-wheat crop was pegged at 27.1 million tonnes, up from 25.5 million in the August farmer survey.

Durum production is forecast at 4.3 million tonnes, up from 3.9 million tonnes in August.

Barley production is seen at 7.3 million tonnes, up from 7.2 million in August.

Oats were pegged at 3.8 million, up from 3.7 million.

Peas now are at 3.86 million, up from 3.779 million in August.

Lentils are at 2.44 million, up from 2.29 million last month.

EXPORTS

Pakistani importers bought about 65,000 tonnes of canola from Canada in a recent deal, European traders told Reuters.

The loonie rose a little, shrugging off weaker-than-expected domestic manufacturing data as oil prices rose and the U.S. greenback broadly fell.

US MARKETS

Chicago corn futures fell nearly one percent on chart-based selling as the harvest of a large U.S. crop loomed, traders told Reuters.

Soybeans followed the weak trend, declining in the absence of fresh supportive news, and wheat closed mixed, with front-month December fractionally lower.

“The biggest thing is, there isn’t anything here for the bull. The path of least resistance is back to the downside,” said Terry Linn, analyst with Linn & Associates.

Corn and wheat retreated from early advances as traders awaited reports from the expanding U.S. corn harvest.

The crop was seven percent harvested by Sunday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in a weekly report.

“I don’t know that we are getting a lot of pressure from the standpoint of producers making sales, but we are seeing ideas this crop is bigger than expected, especially in corn,” said Brian Hoops, analyst with Midwest Market Solutions.

The USDA said 34 percent of the corn crop was mature, well behind the five-year average of 47 percent. But forecasts showed no major weather problems that could threaten late-maturing fields.

“The weather is good for crops that haven’t shut down. You’ve got favourable finishing conditions,” Linn said.

Soybean futures fell to session lows after the USDA, for the first time in eight business days, failed to report fresh sales of U.S. soybeans through its daily export reporting system. Also bearish was the inability of the November soy contract to break through chart resistance and test its 200-day moving average near $9.79.

Plentiful global supplies kept a lid on the wheat market, despite worries about dry conditions in Australia and excessive rain in Argentina.

Futures had little reaction to news that Egypt’s state grain buyer purchased 175,000 tonnes of Russian wheat in a tender. No U.S. wheat was offered.

Egypt received offers from six suppliers, down from the roughly 15 that normally bid to the world’s largest wheat buyer, as traders held back due to a dispute over two blocked import cargoes.

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were down 43 cents at US$49.48 per barrel.

In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US81.46 cents, up from 81.30 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.2276.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Nov 17   492.10s   +2.20   +0.45%

Canola Jan 18   498.80s   +2.10   +0.42%

Canola Mar 18   504.50s   +1.90   +0.38%

Canola May 18   508.50s   +1.70   +0.34%

Canola Jul 18   510.50s   +1.80   +0.35%

 

Milling Wheat Oct 17   221.00s   unch   unch

Milling Wheat Dec 17   223.00s   unch   unch

Milling Wheat Mar 18   230.00s   unch   unch

 

Durum Wheat Oct 17   279.00s   unch   unch

Durum Wheat Dec 17   283.00s   unch   unch

Durum Wheat Mar 18   286.00s   unch   unch

 

Barley Oct 17   145.00s   unch   unch

Barley Dec 17   148.00s   unch   unch

Barley Mar 18   151.00s   unch   unch

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.

 

Chicago

Soybeans Nov 17   965-4s   -2-2   -0.23%

Soybeans Jan 18   976-0s   -2-0   -0.20%

Soybeans Mar 18   985-2s   -1-6   -0.18%

Soybeans May 18   993-4s   -1-6   -0.18%

Soybeans Jul 18   1000-2s   -1-6   -0.17%

 

Soybean Meal Oct 17   305.0s   -4.0   -1.29%

Soybean Meal Dec 17   308.7s   -3.9   -1.25%

Soybean Meal Jan 18   310.6s   -3.7   -1.18%

 

Soybean Oil Oct 17   34.52s   +0.33   +0.97%

Soybean Oil Dec 17   34.76s   +0.33   +0.96%

Soybean Oil Jan 18   34.92s   +0.33   +0.95%

 

Corn Dec 17   348-2s   -3-2   -0.92%

Corn Mar 18   360-6s   -3-2   -0.89%

Corn May 18   369-2s   -3-2   -0.87%

Corn Jul 18   376-2s   -3-0   -0.79%

Corn Sep 18   382-4s   -3-0   -0.78%

 

Oats Dec 17   240-2s   +0-4   +0.21%

Oats Mar 18   247-6s   +2-0   +0.81%

Oats May 18   247-2s   +2-4   +1.02%

Oats Jul 18   245-0s   +1-4   +0.62%

Oats Sep 18   245-0s   +1-4   +0.62%

 

Wheat Dec 17   443-0s   -0-4   -0.11%

Wheat Mar 18   464-0s   +0-2   +0.05%

Wheat May 18   478-0s   +1-0   +0.21%

Wheat Jul 18   489-2s   +1-0   +0.20%

Wheat Sep 18   503-4s   +1-2   +0.25%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Dec 17   617-2s   -5-0   -0.80%

Spring Wheat Mar 18   631-0s   -5-0   -0.79%

Spring Wheat May 18   636-2s   -4-0   -0.62%

Spring Wheat Jul 18   635-0s   -4-0   -0.63%

Spring Wheat Sep 18   628-2s   -0-6 -0.12%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Dec 17   442-0s   -0-2   -0.06%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 18   459-6s   unch   unch

Hard Red Wheat May 18   472-6s   +0-2   +0.05%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 18   489-4s   +0-4   +0.10%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 18   508-0s   +0-6   +0.15%

 

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade

Live Cattle Oct 17   107.975s   +0.400   +0.37%

Live Cattle Dec 17   113.400s   +0.450   +0.40%

Live Cattle Feb 18   117.175s   +0.675   +0.58%

 

Feeder Cattle Sep 17   151.575s   +0.775   +0.51%

Feeder Cattle Oct 17   152.800s   +0.850   +0.56%

Feeder Cattle Nov 17   153.125s   +0.925   +0.61%

 

Lean Hogs Oct 17   60.125s   +0.125   +0.21%

Lean Hogs Dec 17   59.725s   +1.675   +2.89%

Lean Hogs Feb 18   64.375s   +0.725   +1.14%

 

 

About the author

Comments

explore

Stories from our other publications