Crude oil prices are recovering as global economies rebound from COVID-19 disruptions and a few ultra-bulls are talking of the potential to see peaks of US$100 per barrel in the next few years. That would raise farm diesel costs, but also lift ethanol and biodiesel values, which would in turn support crop prices. Of course […] Read more
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Polar vortex couldn’t stop canola’s climb to record price
Bitter cold Feb. 8-14 stalled Canadian grain movement and exports but it didn’t stop futures traders from pushing March canola prices higher. On Feb. 18, the contract reached a record of $777.30 per tonne, topping the previous high set in March 2008. The day before, Agriculture Canada published its monthly supply and demand estimates and […] Read more
Market forecasters work with imperfect information
What will be the important but unknown thing this year that upends market forecasts? This is the time of year when governments and private analysts make preliminary forecasts of spring crop seeding. Prices are the highest in years. Futures markets and pre-seeding contract prices for 2021-22 production are attractive. Most people, including me, think crop […] Read more
Grain demand story dominates market discussion
At the mid-point of the crop year, Canadian grain exports are up 35 percent over the same point last year. It’s part of a global demand picture lifting crop values to their highest levels since the price spikes of 2008 and 2012-13. Through this autumn and winter, buyers around the world, and especially in China, […] Read more
Advancing technology complicates carbon cost forecasts
Canadian Pacific Railway announced in December a pilot project to develop North America’s first line-haul hydrogen-powered locomotive to evaluate the technology’s readiness. Globally, railways, truckers and others are looking at a range of technologies and practices to reduce or eliminate their carbon footprint to address their contribution to climate change and to respond to pressures […] Read more
Rain arrives in time to save the crop in South America
Just as oilseed prices peaked Jan. 13 at multi-year highs on a cut to United States soybean and corn year-end stock forecasts, South American crops began to improve thanks to increasing rainfall. Since then, soybean and canola futures retreated but remain near multi-year highs as traders watch daily South American weather forecasts and assess the […] Read more
Expensive feed and dry pastures concern cattle sector
Cattle producers and feeders are hoping 2021 will be a more prosperous year but rising feed costs and moisture deficits are creating challenges. The year that just ended saw COVID-19 disrupt the beef industry. The supply chain had to pivot quickly as dining out options were restricted causing people to eat more beef at home. […] Read more
Markets soar skyward as supply and demand forces align
It wasn’t only Jupiter and Saturn aligning in December to produce an awe-inspiring sight. Strong demand for oilseeds and worries about global production aligned to cause canola and soybean futures to soar to levels not seen since 2014. From Dec. 1 to Jan. 8, March canola futures rose 14.5 percent. That lagged behind the 18 […] Read more
Will China’s hog sector industrialization hike crop imports?
The Chinese hog sector’s rebuild from the Asian swine fever disaster has hastened the government’s policy to end backyard production in favour of large commercial operations. That also means an accelerated shift away from pigs eating table scraps and swill toward commercial diets. And that might mean China will have to import more feed ingredients […] Read more
Hibernating wheat bear may be shaken from its slumber
Lots of new crop production and demand data has come out in recent weeks giving a better picture of the global wheat situation and once all the numbers are tallied and digested, the new outlook is not much different than the old outlook. Yet it was enough to remind the wheat futures trade, recently in […] Read more
