Canola futures static but demand starting to rise

Canola futures edged higher again on Friday, but over the week they posted a slight loss.

The November contract closed at $489.10, up 50 cents.

Over the week, it fell 60 cents.

Harvest pressure continues to weigh down canola prices, but demand is starting to rebuild now that new crop is entering the commercial system.

Soybeans edged lower today but gained slightly on the week, shaking off the negative effects of Tuesday’s bearish USDA monthly supply and demand report, which raised the production forecast, surprising the trade.

Many U.S. farmers and traders still think the USDA is too optimistic in its yield forecast after a dry August and early September in the Midwest.

A stronger than expected monthly U.S. soybean crush in August supported soybeans.

Also, soybeans and the wider oilseed market are supported on news that it is dry in a large part of Brazil and too wet in parts of Argentina.

The start of seeding in much of South America does not occur for several weeks yet but if the challenging weather continues it could delay seeding and affect yields.

Also, conditions in the Pacific are moving toward a La Nina. If it does fully develop, La Nina tends to deliver drier weather to southern Brazil.

SPRING WHEAT

Minneapolis spring wheat future fell 25.25 cents a bushel or about four percent over the week.

Wheat values are weighed down by a record large Russian wheat crop that is causing it to aggressively compete on the world market.

ALBERTA HARVEST

Alberta’s harvest was 45 percent complete as of Sept. 12, well ahead of the five-year average of about 32 percent, according to the provincial crop report issued today.

Another 17 percent is in the swath and 38 percent remains standing.

In the south about 87 percent is complete. Central areas are 58 percent, the northeast is 25 percent, Peace region is 17 percent and the northwest is only 11 percent complete.

Only 28 percent of canola is in the bin.

WEATHER OUTLOOK

It could be a rainy weekend in southern Manitoba and the southeast corner of Saskatchewan. Other areas should be mostly dry.

More rain is expected next week with larger accumulations in northern areas of Alberta and Saskatchewan and most of Manitoba.

CANOLA CRUSH

The crush pace is starting to ramp up with 176,184 tonnes of canola processed in the week to Sept. 13, up about 14 percent from the week before and a capacity use of about 80 percent.

Farmers delivered a whopping amount of canola into the commercial system in the past week – 627,000 tonnes or the third highest one-week total in 10 years of Canadian Grain Commission records.

That brought commercial stocks in all positions up over one million tonnes for the first time in four months.

EXPORTS

Canola exports totaled 96,400 tonnes in the week to Sept. 10, up from 57,800 tonnes the week before.

The export total for the crop year is 662,800 tonnes, about 110,000 tonnes behind last year.

Wheat and durum exports are running well ahead of last year at this point.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Agriculture Canada’s September balance sheet issued today was updated to include Statistics Canada’s numbers on production and year-end stocks.

With canola production forecast at 18.2 million tonnes, carry in at 1.348 million and imports of 100,000 tonnes, the total supply is 19.65 million, down about 2.1 million tonnes from last year.

AgCanada forecasts exports of 9.9 million tonnes, down about a million from last year and 9.1 million tonnes of domestic crush, feed waste and dockage, down about 360,000 from last year.

It forecasts year-end stocks falling to a tight 650,000 tonnes.

Those numbers might not stand, as many believe production will be bigger than farmers expected when Statistics Canada interviewed them in late July.

OUTSIDE MARKETS

A terrorist bombing in London and another North Korea missile launch had little impact on markets.

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were unchanged at US$49.89 per barrel.

In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US82.09 cents, down from 82.17 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.2182.

The S&P/TSX composite index rose 0.31 of a point to 15,173.03.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 64 points or 0.3 percent at 22,268.34 points a new record high. The Nasdaq Composite added 19 points or 0.30 percent to 6,448.47. The S&P 500 index rose four points, or 0.2 percent, to 2,500.

For the week, the TSX composite rose 1.25 percent, the S&P 500 rose 1.58 percent, the Dow gained 2.16 percent and the Nasdaq rose 1.39 percent.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Nov 17   489.10s   +0.50   +0.10%

Canola Jan 18   495.70s   +0.70   +0.14%

Canola Mar 18   501.50s   +0.20   +0.04%

Canola May 18   505.70s   +0.50   +0.10%

Canola Jul 18   507.50s   +0.60   +0.12%

 

Milling Wheat Oct 17   223.00s   -5.00   -2.19%

Milling Wheat Dec 17   225.00s   -6.00   -2.60%

Milling Wheat Mar 18   231.00s   -6.00   -2.53%

 

Durum Wheat Oct 17   279.00s   unch   unch

Durum Wheat Dec 17   283.00s   unch   unch

Durum Wheat Mar 18   286.00s   unch   unch

 

Barley Oct 17   145.00s   unch   unch

Barley Dec 17   148.00s   unch   unch

Barley Mar 18   151.00s   unch   unch

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.

 

Chicago

Soybeans Nov 17   968-6s   -7-2   -0.74%

Soybeans Jan 18   979-0s   -7-0   -0.71%

Soybeans Mar 18   987-6s   -5-6   -0.58%

Soybeans May 18   995-6s   -6-0   -0.60%

Soybeans Jul 18   1002-4s   -6-0   -0.59%

 

Soybean Meal Oct 17   308.0s   -1.5   -0.48%

Soybean Meal Dec 17   311.4s   -1.7   -0.54%

Soybean Meal Jan 18   312.9s   -1.5   -0.48%

 

Soybean Oil Oct 17   34.56s   -0.27   -0.78%

Soybean Oil Dec 17   34.81s   -0.27   -0.77%

Soybean Oil Jan 18   34.97s   -0.26   -0.74%

 

Corn Dec 17   354-6s   +0-4   +0.14%

Corn Mar 18   367-2s   +0-6   +0.20%

Corn May 18   375-6s   +1-0   +0.27%

Corn Jul 18   382-2s   +1-0   +0.26%

Corn Sep 18   388-4s   +0-6   +0.19%

 

Oats Dec 17   236-0s   -2-0   -0.84%

Oats Mar 18   243-2s   -2-2   -0.92%

Oats May 18   242-2s   -2-2   -0.92%

Oats Jul 18   244-0s   -2-0   -0.81%

Oats Sep 18   244-0s   -2-0   -0.81%

 

Wheat Dec 17   449-0s   +6-0   +1.35%

Wheat Mar 18   468-0s   +5-4   +1.19%

Wheat May 18   481-0s   +4-6   +1.00%

Wheat Jul 18   492-2s   +4-0   +0.82%

Wheat Sep 18   506-0s   +3-6   +0.75%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Dec 17   621-4s   -11-0   -1.74%

Spring Wheat Mar 18   634-6s   -10-4   -1.63%

Spring Wheat May 18   639-6s   -8-4   -1.31%

Spring Wheat Jul 18   640-6s   -7-2   -1.12%

Spring Wheat Sep 18   630-0s   -3-4   -0.55%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Dec 17   446-0s   +4-0   +0.90%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 18   463-6s   +4-4   +0.98%

Hard Red Wheat May 18   476-6s   +4-2   +0.90%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 18   492-2s   +4-2   +0.87%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 18   511-0s   +4-2   +0.84%

 

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade

Live Cattle Oct 17   107.750s   +0.825   +0.77%

Live Cattle Dec 17   112.825s   +1.050   +0.94%

Live Cattle Feb 18   116.750s   +1.000   +0.86%

 

Feeder Cattle Sep 17   150.225s   +1.425   +0.96%

Feeder Cattle Oct 17   150.650s   +1.050   +0.70%

Feeder Cattle Nov 17   150.725s   +1.250   +0.84%

 

Lean Hogs Oct 17   60.975s   +1.950   +3.30%

Lean Hogs Dec 17   58.475s   +1.950   +3.45%

Lean Hogs Feb 18   64.100s   +1.750   +2.81%

 

 

 

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