Argentina rain dampens oilseed market Thursday

Expectations for improved soil moisture in Argentina with the forecast for weekend rain pressured oilseeds lower on Thursday.

Soybeans were down a little more than one percent and canola fell a little less than one percent. The loonie has rallied back above US78 cents.

Corn was basically unchanged and wheat rallied slightly on short covering and stronger than expected weekly U.S. exports.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported export sales of U.S. wheat in the latest week at 598,400 tonnes (old and new crop years combined), above a range of trade estimates for 250,000 to 450,000 tonnes.

ARGENTINA

Argentina’s Rosario grain exchange raised its 2017-18 wheat crop estimate to 17.3 million tonnes, from 16.3 million last month, the exchange said Wednesday.

The exchange forecast the soybean crop that is still being seeded at 54.5 million tonnes, slightly above its previous estimate., But that is below the current USDA forecast.

Much depends on the coverage of the weekend rain

The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said today that about a third of the soybean crop still needed to be seeded and the window will soon start to close.

“There are 6.6 million hectares yet to be sown nationwide, and half that area should be planted over the coming two weeks. But those plans have been put at risk,” the report said, referring to the dry weather.

Dryness has also held back 2017-18 corn planting. Farmers had planted 45.3 percent of the 5.4 million hectares estimated to be dedicated to corn as of Thursday, the report said..

CANADIAN EXPORTS

After topping one million tonnes of crop exports in week 18, exports slipped back to 910,100 tonnes in week 19 to Dec. 10.

The Canadian Grain commission said that to-date bulk exports stand at 15.96 million tonnes, slightly above last year’s pace of 15.9 million.

Bulk exports of peas and lentils have been hit hard by India’s lack of demand and import duties.

But exports are running ahead of last year for wheat, canola, durum, barley flax and rye. Corn exports are similar to last year while soybeans are down 12.3 percent on the year, according to CGC figures.

As of week 18, shipments from Vancouver’s terminals are up three percent from last year and up seven percent from the five year average.

Shipments from Prince Rupert are down 10 percent from last year and down 11 percent from the five year average.

Shipments from Thunder Bay are down 12 percent from last year and down eight percent from the five year average.

There had been a bit of a back up in the system in the last month or so.

Canadian National Railway has admitted being under resourced but is now bringing on more engines and crews. Weather and derailments caused delays as well.

But the last two weeks has seen some improvement in the number of ships cleared, bringing down the vessel line up at Vancouver.

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up 44 cents at US$57.04 per barrel.

The Bank of Canada is increasingly confident the economy will need less stimulus over time, Governor Stephen Poloz said on Thursday in an end-of-year speech that boosted the Canadian dollar and raised expectations of another rate hike early in 2018.

Poloz said the economy was in a sweet spot after making “tremendous” progress over the last year, with early signs that a long-awaited rotation to higher exports and business investment is happening as the housing boom cools.

In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US78.41 cents, up from 77.99 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.2753.

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed down 120.13 points, or 0.74 percent, at 16,016.46.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 76.77 points, or 0.31 percent, to close at 24,508.66, the S&P 500 lost 10.84 points, or 0.41 percent, to 2,652.01 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 19.27 points, or 0.28 percent, to 6,856.53.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne.

Canola Jan 18   494.00s   -4.70   -0.94%

Canola Mar 18   502.00s   -4.90   -0.97%

Canola May 18   509.40s   -4.80   -0.93%

Canola Jul 18   513.20s   -4.90   -0.95%

Canola Nov 18   501.50s   -2.00   -0.40%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.

 

Chicago

Soybeans Jan 18   967-6s   -11-4   -1.17%

Soybeans Mar 18   978-6s   -11-6   -1.19%

Soybeans May 18   989-6s   -11-6   -1.17%

Soybeans Jul 18   999-4s   -11-4   -1.14%

Soybeans Aug 18   1001-2s   -11-2   -1.11%

 

Soybean Meal Dec 17   321.2s   -3.9   -1.20%

Soybean Meal Jan 18   321.6s   -5.2   -1.59%

Soybean Meal Mar 18   325.6s   -5.3   -1.60%

 

Soybean Oil Dec 17   33.02s   -0.09   -0.27%

Soybean Oil Jan 18   33.18s   -0.03   -0.09%

Soybean Oil Mar 18   33.37s   -0.03   -0.09%

 

Corn Dec 17   336-2s   -0-4   -0.15%

Corn Mar 18   348-4s   -0-4   -0.14%

Corn May 18   356-6s   -0-4   -0.14%

Corn Jul 18   365-0s   -0-4   -0.14%

Corn Sep 18   372-0s   -0-4   -0.13%

 

Oats Dec 17   238-6s   +4-6   +2.03%

Oats Mar 18   251-6s   +2-6   +1.10%

Oats May 18   258-6s   +3-6   +1.47%

Oats Jul 18   266-2s   +3-6   +1.43%

Oats Sep 18   268-2s   +3-6   +1.42%

 

Wheat Dec 17   395-0s   +2-6   +0.70%

Wheat Mar 18   418-2s   +1-4   +0.36%

Wheat May 18   430-6s   +1-4   +0.35%

Wheat Jul 18   443-4s   +1-0   +0.23%

Wheat Sep 18   457-2s +1-4   +0.33%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Dec 17   599-6s   unch   unch

Spring Wheat Mar 18   617-0s   +4-4   +0.73%

Spring Wheat May 18   624-4s   +3-4   +0.56%

Spring Wheat Jul 18   628-6s   +3-2   +0.52%

Spring Wheat Sep 18   623-0s   +1-2   +0.20%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Dec 17   402-4s   +3-4   +0.88%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 18   418-2s   +2-0   +0.48%

Hard Red Wheat May 18   431-2s   +2-0   +0.47%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 18   447-4s   +2-2   +0.51%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 18   462-4s   +3-0   +0.65%

 

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade

Live Cattle Dec 17   116.275s   +0.625   +0.54%

Live Cattle Feb 18   119.150s   +0.775   +0.65%

Live Cattle Apr 18   120.300s   +0.100   +0.08%

 

Feeder Cattle Jan 18   146.250s   +0.600   +0.41%

Feeder Cattle Mar 18   144.350s   +0.300   +0.21%

Feeder Cattle Apr 18   144.700s   +0.675   +0.47%

 

Lean Hogs Dec 17   64.025s   +0.075   +0.12%

Lean Hogs Feb 18   67.625s   +0.825   +1.24%

Lean Hogs Apr 18   72.250s   +0.775   +1.08%

 

 

 

 

 

 

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