A panel has just begun on the subject of the role of research in agriculture and its rewards.
Philip Pardey of the University of Minnesota has been speaking about the history of Malthusian thinking, which is the perennial doom chorus that sees massive starvation coming and the world running out of food.
From the late 1700s to the 1960s and 1970s people have been believing that the world is running out of farmers’ ability to produce lots more for expanding populations.
Pardey said he is going to look at the present price spike in the light of those of the 1970s and 1940s and discuss whether – like after the 40s and 70s – crop prices will return to their ever-declining path (inflation adjusted), or if a structural change has happened that will reverse that course.
Pardey said agricultural productivity growth across most of the world has slowed dramatically since 1990, which is when public sector research began declining.
“There has been this huge shift down,” said Pardey about the slowing of productivity gains in crop production.
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“It’s basically across the board.”
Pardey said a continued slow rate of productivity growth will mean world population and consumption will put pressure on world supplies of food, and if something scary like UG99 – a new type of cereal stem rust – devastates world wheat production, then humanity might have serious food production problems.
