Tomorrow I’m moderating a panel discussion at the Canadian Association of Agri-Retailers convention looking at the likely shape of the post-CWB monopoly world for farmers, retailers, grain companies and the rest of the industry.
It’s going to be a chance for four informed people to give their best guess as to how the whole realignment of the prairie grain industry is going to end up. I’ve spoken to all four about what we’re going to be discussing, and it’s struck me just how much everything relies on everything else. What I mean is that the actual shape of the prairie industry is not going to be shaped by any one company, agency, law or regulation. It’s going to come down to how all the many disparate players in the industry choose to go forward, one piece at a time, all following their own unique interests. And as any one acts, the others will react and go from there. So it’s unpredictable.
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I’m going to be asking them about what opportunities exist to be filled in the new environment, and what gaps might appear. Who’s going to be able to take advantage of the opportunities? Some folks are already trying to fit themselves into roles they didn’t play under the monopoly environment. Others are waiting to see who’s doing what before they decide to go forwards.
I wonder if that’s where some of the gaps will appear, because even if some crucial roles and functions are spotted, will people move quickly to fill them – leaping on the opportunity – or will be they be conservative and not rashly move into areas they don’t know much about? From what I’ve heard around the industry, everyone’s interested in being able to offer new services and develop their businesses, but most want to be cautious before they take on too much risk.
So after August 1, some things might not be there that farmers and the industry need. That will be interesting to watch – if you’re a reporter like me. If you’re a farmer or grain industry person, it will be less interesting and more anxiety-inducing. I had a laugh with one of the panelists about the situation, using former U.S. Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld’s line about “Known knowns, known unknowns and unknown unknowns.” The industry’s probably being pretty good at filling in the known knowns, is likely mostly aware of the known unknowns, but by their very definition, they can’t know anything about the unknown unknowns, and can merely prepare themselves to face them when they leap up.
With any luck, the gaps won’t be too wide for too long.
