SASKATOON — Canada’s pea producers are breathing a sigh of relief after India announced it is extending duty-free access for yellow peas through March 31, 2026.
The exemption was set to expire May 31, 2025.
Vivek Agrawal, managing director of JLV Agro, an Indian commodity brokerage firm, said the policy change is good news for Canadian farmers and Indian consumers, but it wasn’t well received by Indian traders.
“The market is over-flooded with all the pulses,” he said.
He expects pulse prices in India to remain stable or decline slightly in the wake of the announcement.
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It is terrific news for Canadian farmers who recently lost their other top market for peas when China slapped a 100 per cent import tariff on the product in response to Canada’s tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, steel and aluminum.
Canada shipped about 500,000 tonnes of yellow peas worth $306 million to China in 2024.
However, that was a down year. The five-year average is over 1.5 million tonnes valued at $740 million annually.
It would have been a disaster if Canada was also shut out of the Indian market.
AgPulse Analytica thinks India could import one to two million tonnes of the pulse in 2025-26, down from the 2.3 million tonnes in the current crop year.
Agrawal thinks 1.5 to two million tonnes of yellow pea imports sounds about right. It will be substantial, but not as high as last year.
Russia and Canada will supply those peas.
Russia will provide stiff competition to Canadian exporters because farmers in that country are expected to produce a crop of 4.5 to five million tonnes.
Agriculture Canada is forecasting 3.13 million tonnes of Canadian production by comparison.
Agrawal said Canadian exporters will need to slash their prices to match Russia’s bids of US$360 per tonne on old crop and $345 per tonne on new crop with July/August delivery.
“Maybe if China will pay a higher price, Russia can sell to China and Canada can sell to India,” he said.
