November canola at one point hit $500 per tonnes on Thursday supported by a bullish data on soybeans in the monthly USDA report.
But by the close the November contract had softened and closed at $495.70, up $2.20 or 0.45 percent.
Active farmer selling at the highs of the day were behind the late session weakness.
The canola harvest in Saskatchewan was 93 percent complete, the province said in a weekly crop progress report.
SOYBEAN SUPPLY FALLS
Soybeans closed up 2.77 percent, fueled mostly by a 3.7 percent increase in soy meal futures, but soy oil rose only 0.49 percent.
The trade generally thought the USDA would raise its soybean and corn yield forecasts but the report lowered the soybean yield to 49.5 bu. per acre from 49.9 last month. On average, the trade expected 50 bu. per acre.
The total soy production number 4.431 billion bu. did not change because USDA raised its estimate of harvested area.
But it trimmed by 45 million bushels its estimate of 2016-17 year end soy stocks to 430 million bu. and when that was worked into the supply and demand spreadsheet for 2017-18 it also resulted in a 45 million bu. decline in the ending stocks for the new crop year as well.
USDA also lowered its forecast for global 2017-18 year end stocks by about 1.5 million tonnes to 96.05 million tonnes.
Soybeans also got support from continuing dryness in Brazil’s northern soybean growing area. Southern areas are getting rain.
US CANOLA
U.S. canola growers harvested 20 percent more acres this year but yields were down 24 percent.
The bottom line is a forecast of 1.27 million tonnes of production, down nine percent from 1.4 million last year.
CORN
Corn firmed despite the USDA raising its U.S. corn yield estimate to 171.8 bu. per acre, above even the highest in a range of trade estimates.
WHEAT PRODUCTION RISES
Wheat futures fell as the USDA raised its production forecast for the European Union, Countries of the former Soviet Union and Canada.
It pegged global wheat production at 751.19 million tonnes, up 6.34 million tonnes.
It forecast global year-end wheat stocks at 268.13 million tonnes, up almost five million tonnes from last month and up 11.55 million from last year.
DELAYED HARVEST
The U.S. harvest is off to the slowest start in three years and some in the trade believe the slow pace might lead to declining yield forecasts in future USDA reports.
Reuters reported that in 2014, the last time harvest was slower than this year, the USDA’s final corn yield came in at 171.0 bushels per acre, 3.2 bushels below its October estimate. That knocked 259 million bushels from the final production figure.
However, soybean yields rose 0.4 bu. per acre, to 47.5 bu., between the October 2014 projection and the final report that year.
PRAIRIE HARVEST
The seven-day forecast looks fairly dry for most northern growing regions, which will be welcome. While most harvest is complete in southern and central areas, the north has a significant amount of crop still out.
Today’s Saskatchewan crop report said east-central and northeastern regions have 92 percent. The northwestern region has 87 percent combined.
On the weekend southern Manitoba could see showers.
OUTSIDE MARKETS
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were down 70 cents at US$50.60 per barrel.
In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US80.16 cents, down from 80.28 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.2475.
Corporations have begun posting their quarterly earnings reports and markets took a breather. Investors are hoping that financial results will back up the rally in stock valuations in recent months.
The Toronto Stock Exchange composite fell 58.20 or 0.37 percent to 15,742.20.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 31.88 points, or 0.14 percent, to end at 22,841.01, the S&P 500 lost 4.31 points, or 0.17 percent, to 2,550.93 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 12.04 points, or 0.18 percent, to 6,591.51.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 17 495.70s +2.20 +0.45%
Canola Jan 18 502.50s +3.00 +0.60%
Canola Mar 18 507.40s +3.00 +0.59%
Canola May 18 509.80s +2.90 +0.57%
Canola Jul 18 510.80s +2.70 +0.53%
Milling Wheat Oct 17 228.00s -3.00 -1.30%
Milling Wheat Dec 17 231.00s -3.00 -1.28%
Milling Wheat Mar 18 236.00s -3.00 -1.26%
Durum Wheat Oct 17 279.00s -1.00 -0.36%
Durum Wheat Dec 17 281.00s unch unch
Durum Wheat Mar 18 286.00s unch unch
Barley Oct 17 145.00s unch unch
Barley Dec 17 148.00s unch unch
Barley Mar 18 151.00s unch unch
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.
Chicago
Soybeans Nov 17 992-0s +26-6 +2.77%
Soybeans Jan 18 1002-4s +26-4 +2.72%
Soybeans Mar 18 1012-0s +26-4 +2.69%
Soybeans May 18 1021-2s +26-2 +2.64%
Soybeans Jul 18 1029-4s +25-6 +2.57%
Soybean Meal Oct 17 322.7s +11.5 +3.70%
Soybean Meal Dec 17 326.3s +11.4 +3.62%
Soybean Meal Jan 18 328.3s +11.3 +3.56%
Soybean Oil Oct 17 33.07s +0.16 +0.49%
Soybean Oil Dec 17 33.28s +0.13 +0.39%
Soybean Oil Jan 18 33.45s +0.12 +0.36%
Corn Dec 17 349-0s +3-0 +0.87%
Corn Mar 18 362-6s +3-2 +0.90%
Corn May 18 371-6s +3-6 +1.02%
Corn Jul 18 379-2s +3-4 +0.93%
Corn Sep 18 386-0s +3-0 +0.78%
Oats Dec 17 261-6s +9-0 +3.56%
Oats Mar 18 263-6s +8-4 +3.33%
Oats May 18 264-6s +10-2 +4.03%
Oats Jul 18 261-0s +8-2 +3.26%
Oats Sep 18 261-0s +8-2 +3.26%
Wheat Dec 17 430-4s -2-6 -0.63%
Wheat Mar 18 449-4s -2-6 -0.61%
Wheat May 18 461-6s -3-0 -0.65%
Wheat Jul 18 475-2s -3-2 -0.68%
Wheat Sep 18 491-2s -3-0 -0.61%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Dec 17 611-2s -7-6 -1.25%
Spring Wheat Mar 18 625-0s -7-6 -1.22%
Spring Wheat May 18 631-4s -7-6 -1.21%
Spring Wheat Jul 18 635-4s -7-0 -1.09%
Spring Wheat Sep 18 629-2s -8-0 -1.26%
Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Dec 17 426-2s -2-0 -0.47%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 18 444-4s -2-0 -0.45%
Hard Red Wheat May 18 458-6s -2-0 -0.43%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 18 476-6s -2-2 -0.47%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 18 495-4s -2-2 -0.45%
Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade
Live Cattle Oct 17 112.350s -1.425 -1.25%
Live Cattle Dec 17 117.275s -1.250 -1.05%
Live Cattle Feb 18 121.200s -0.975 -0.80%
Feeder Cattle Oct 17 153.550s -0.600 -0.39%
Feeder Cattle Nov 17 154.550s -1.125 -0.72%
Feeder Cattle Jan 18 152.250s -2.000 -1.30%
Lean Hogs Oct 17 60.700s -0.550 -0.90%
Lean Hogs Dec 17 61.625s -0.875 -1.40%
Lean Hogs Feb 18 66.825s -0.950 -1.40%
