Global oilseeds, China, dollar tug at canola

Canola was softer today, after losses yesterday that mirrored soybeans and made the two crops some of the most active on the commodity markets. Today, however, the American holiday might have held it up, as that side of the oilseed trade moved into a long-weekend mode where if nobody moves, nobody gets hurt.

Asian palm oil prices softened, with Malaysian numbers falling to three-year lows, which is putting negative pressure on vegetable oils in general.

The International Grains Council was making some amendments to its earlier numbers, lowering global corn and soy production slightly and keeping wheat estimates flat.

ICE canola for January settled down $2.60 to end the day at $476.40 per tonne. Font months were all soft, March was at $484.80, down $2.40, May $492.80, down $2.50 and July remains just below $500 at $498.10, off $2.50 for the day.

Lower soybean prices in the U.S. has aided that industry in moving beans offshore, and that makes them very competitive with any Canadian bean sales and is holding down on canola prices.

A higher Canadian dollar and remaining stress from Sino-American trade disputes combined to provide negative pressure on canola. In addition, Chinese infections of African swine fever might be lowering overall feed demand in that country, weakening potential imports of soybeans from non-American shippers. However, that would require infections of large-scale hog barns, versus smaller, open-housed animal operations and it is not clear if that is the case in China’s ASF infections.

Some USDA news will come out during the holiday weekend, with USDA weekly export reports, however those are largely expected to show improved American soybean sales to non-Chinese buyers.

The Ukraine is expected to export about 19 percent more wheat this crop year than last says that country’s agriculture ministry, however its exports year over year, so far, are not keeping that pace and are down about seven percent compared with last season at this time.

U.S. spring wheat prices have remained relatively strong and showed some improvement ahead of the holiday close, rising 2.25 U.S. cents yesterday, finishing that day at US$ 5.7075.

Name / Contract High Low Last Change Settlement
Canola Jan 2019 (updated 3:24AM(CST) on 11/22/2018) 479.80 476.20 479.00 1.80 476.40
Canola Mar 2019 (updated 3:24AM(CST) on 11/22/2018) 487.60 484.50 487.20 1.80 484.80
Canola May 2019 (updated 3:24AM(CST) on 11/22/2018) 495.80 492.20 495.30 1.90 492.80
Canola Jul 2019 (updated 3:24AM(CST) on 11/22/2018) 500.80 497.40 500.40 1.70 498.10
Canola Nov 2019 (updated 3:24AM(CST) on 11/22/2018) 497.10 494.40 495.50 -0.70 493.30
Soybeans Jan 2019 889.00 876.00 883.00 2.00 883.00
Soybeans Mar 2019 902.50 889.75 896.75 2.25 896.75
Soybeans May 2019 915.75 903.00 909.75 2.00 909.75
Soybeans Jul 2019 928.00 915.50 922.25 2.25 922.25
Soybeans Aug 2019 932.00 920.25 926.50 2.00 926.50
Soybeans Sep 2019 932.50 921.50 926.50 1.50 926.50
Soybean Meal Dec 2018 308.50 305.40 306.60 -0.50 306.60
Soybean Meal Jan 2019 310.70 307.50 308.70 -0.50 308.70
Soybean Meal Mar 2019 313.10 310.20 310.80 -0.90 310.80
Soybean Oil Dec 2018 27.87 27.32 27.80 0.46 27.80
Soybean Oil Jan 2019 28.05 27.50 27.99 0.47 27.99
Soybean Oil Mar 2019 28.31 27.77 28.25 0.47 28.25
Corn Dec 2018 363.25 360.00 361.75 0.50 361.75
Corn Mar 2019 374.00 371.00 372.75 0.50 372.75
Corn May 2019 381.75 378.75 380.50 0.50 380.50
Corn Jul 2019 388.50 385.50 387.25 0.50 387.25
Corn Sep 2019 391.75 389.00 390.75 0.75 390.75
Oats Dec 2018 303.75 290.25 291.50 -12.25 291.50
Oats Mar 2019 304.75 289.00 294.50 -9.00 294.50
Oats May 2019 302.50 290.75 294.75 -5.50 294.75
Oats Jul 2019 304.50 286.75 286.75 unch 286.75
Oats Sep 2019 279.00 275.00 279.00 0.75 279.00
Wheat Dec 2018 504.25 497.75 498.75 -2.00 498.75
Wheat Mar 2019 512.00 504.75 506.75 -1.75 506.75
Wheat May 2019 518.25 511.50 513.25 -2.00 513.25
Wheat Jul 2019 526.50 520.00 521.50 -2.25 521.50
Wheat Sep 2019 537.50 531.25 532.25 -2.50 532.25
Spring Wheat Dec 2018 573.00 569.00 572.00 2.25 572.00
Spring Wheat Mar 2019 573.00 569.25 572.00 1.75 572.00
Spring Wheat May 2019 579.50 576.00 578.25 1.25 578.25
Spring Wheat Jul 2019 588.25 583.50 586.75 1.25 586.75
Spring Wheat Sep 2019 597.25 592.25 595.50 1.25 595.50
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2018 475.25 468.00 469.00 -4.00 469.00
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2019 499.75 491.50 493.00 -4.25 493.00
Hard Red Wheat May 2019 511.25 503.75 504.75 -4.25 504.75
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2019 523.00 516.00 516.50 -4.25 516.50
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2019 536.75 529.75 530.25 -4.50 530.25
Live Cattle (Pit) Dec 2018 116.40 116.40 116.40 0.70 116.40
Live Cattle (Pit) Feb 2019 120.75 120.75 120.75 1.03 120.75
Live Cattle (Pit) Apr 2019 122.60 122.60 122.60 1.03 122.60
Feeder Cattle (Pit) Jan 2019 148.63 148.63 148.63 1.75 148.63
Feeder Cattle (Pit) Mar 2019 145.18 145.18 145.18 1.03 145.18
Feeder Cattle (Pit) Apr 2019 145.38 145.38 145.38 0.88 145.38
Lean Hogs (Pit) Dec 2018 58.28 58.28 58.28 -0.70 58.28
Lean Hogs (Pit) Feb 2019 66.18 66.18 66.18 -0.95 66.18
Lean Hogs (Pit) Apr 2019 71.15 71.15 71.15 -0.53 71.15
Canadian Dollar Dec 2018 0.7563 0.7512 0.7549 0.0036 0.7579
Crude Oil WTI Jan 2019 55.86 53.39 54.63 1.20 53.85

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