Canola firms despite worries over carryout

Winnipeg (CNS Canada) – The ICE Futures Canada canola complex finished higher on Thursday, despite growing fears that this year’s carryout could get much larger.

“We might end up being under last year’s number for exports,” said a trader in Winnipeg. “That means our carryout could balloon to 2.5 million tonnes pretty easily.”

He adds buyers have been shying away from canola in recent months, because it was deemed too expensive relative to other oilseeds. He says canola is starting to become more affordable though.

Weakness in the Canadian dollar was supportive along with some speculative buying.

However, losses in the U.S. soy complex undermined prices.

There are ideas that dryness problems in Argentina are pretty well baked into the market.

Around 21,679 canola contracts were traded on Thursday, which compares with Wednesday when around 40,573 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 6,498 of the contracts traded.

Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

The soybean market finished slightly lower on Thursday due to technical selling.

At the USDA’s Agricultural Outlook Forum, government economists told delegates they expected farmers in the U.S. to plant 90 million acres of soybeans in 2018. That is slightly below last year’s figure and also below what most analysts were expecting to hear.

There are some weather forecasts calling for rain to fall in northwest Argentina next week, which was slightly bearish.

Corn futures finished slightly higher as dry weather in Argentina is starting to cut into corn yields.

The Rosario Grain Exchanged pegged Argentina’s soybean crop at 46.5 million tonnes. That was down roughly five million tonnes from the previous forecast.

The dominant May corn contract rose above the US$3.75 per bushel mark at one point today.

The USDA said it expects U.S. farmers to plant 90 million acres of corn in 2018.

Chicago wheat futures ended higher on Thursday, taking support from weakness in the U.S. dollar.

The rain that fell in the U.S. Plains yesterday was very little, according to reports. Dryness in the region has been underpinning the market for the past few weeks.

Russian consulting firm IKAR pegged the country’s wheat exports at 37.5 million tonnes, which was nearly a million tonnes higher than the past report.

 

 

 

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up $1.09 at US$62.77 per barrel.

In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US78.63 cents, down from 78.75 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.2718.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne.

Canola Mar 18 510.70s +2.40 +0.47%

Canola May 18 515.20s +1.70 +0.33%

Canola Jul 18 520.70s +2.10 +0.40%

Canola Nov 18 510.50s unch unch

Canola Jan 19 515.60s +0.50 +0.10%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.

 

Chicago

Soybeans Mar 18 1032-0s -2-2 -0.22%

Soybeans May 18 1043-2s -2-2 -0.22%

Soybeans Jul 18 1052-4s -2-4 -0.24%

Soybeans Aug 18 1053-0s -2-4 -0.24%

Soybeans Sep 18 1038-4s -1-4 -0.14%

 

Soybean Meal Mar 18 376.9s -1.1 -0.29%

Soybean Meal May 18 379.6s -1.4 -0.37%

Soybean Meal Jul 18 379.1s -0.7 -0.18%

 

Soybean Oil Mar 18 32.04s -0.03 -0.09%

Soybean Oil May 18 32.25s -0.03 -0.09%

Soybean Oil Jul 18 32.41s -0.04 -0.12%

 

Corn Mar 18 366-6s +1-0 +0.27%

Corn May 18 374-6s +0-6 +0.20%

Corn Jul 18 382-4s +0-6 +0.20%

Corn Sep 18 389-4s +0-6 +0.19%

Corn Dec 18 397-2s +0-6 +0.19%

 

Oats Mar 18 257-6s -0-4 -0.19%

Oats May 18 260-6s +1-2 +0.48%

Oats Jul 18 260-6s +2-2 +0.87%

Oats Sep 18 257-0s +2-2 +0.88%

Oats Dec 18 258-0s +3-2 +1.28%

 

Wheat Mar 18 451-2s +4-0 +0.89%

Wheat May 18 464-2s +4-6 +1.03%

Wheat Jul 18 479-0s +4-2 +0.90%

Wheat Sep 18 495-2s +4-0 +0.81%

Wheat Dec 18 516-2s +3-6 +0.73%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Mar 18 603-0s +1-6 +0.29%

Spring Wheat May 18 615-6s +3-2 +0.53%

Spring Wheat Jul 18 625-6s +3-6 +0.60%

Spring Wheat Sep 18 632-4s +3-4 +0.56%

Spring Wheat Dec 18 640-2s +2-6 +0.43%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Mar 18 470-6s +5-0 +1.07%

Hard Red Wheat May 18 486-2s +4-4 +0.93%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 18 504-2s +4-6 +0.95%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 18 522-0s +5-0 +0.97%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 18 542-4s +5-4 +1.02%

 

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade

Live Cattle Feb 18 128.350s -1.300 -1.00%

Live Cattle Apr 18 125.375s -0.850 -0.67%

Live Cattle Jun 18 116.800s -0.250 -0.21%

 

Feeder Cattle Mar 18 146.000s -0.650 -0.44%

Feeder Cattle Apr 18 148.075s -1.025 -0.69%

Feeder Cattle May 18 149.125s -0.925 -0.62%

 

Lean Hogs Apr 18 71.275s +1.375 +1.97%

Lean Hogs May 18 77.425s +1.275 +1.67%

Lean Hogs Jun 18 82.950s +1.650 +2.03%

 

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