Canola futures fell Friday, mostly because of a strong gain in the Canadian dollar following a better than expected monthly jobs report.
January canola closed down $3.50 at $506.10
For the week, the January contract fell $4.90 or about one percent.
The soybean complex rose today on concern about a forecast for dry weather in Argentina.
SOUTH AMERICAN WEATHER
The trend in South America is that Brazil’s dryness concerns in the middle of the country have been alleviated by rain but southern Brazil and Argentina are turning dry. The developing La Nina in the Pacific equatorial region tends to bring dry weather to Argentina but wet weather to parts of Australia.
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AUSTRALIA TO BE DRENCHED
That seems to be happening with the dryness in Argentina and a weekend intense rain storm that could damage as much as four million tonnes of eastern Australia’s wheat crop, just as it was to be harvested.
Some places in eastern Australia could get 10 to 12 inches of rain over the weekend.
Given the overabundance of wheat in the world, the news about Australia did not have a major impact on the market.
Still, wheat did edge higher. Some of the rise was associated with short covering. The trade’s position is heavily net short and so there is a possibility that there could more short covering as the end of the year approaches to balance the risk.
CANADIAN EXPORTS
The amount of bulk exports in the week to Nov. 26 was 966,900 tonnes, up from 923,000 the week before, according to Canadian Grain Commission figures.
Overall this crop year, Canadian Pacific has been meeting the demands placed on it, but Canadian National has ben missing its car allocation plans.
Recently, some derailments on CP lines have caused modest disruptions.
Overall for the crop year, rail grain movement has been good but there appears to be a bit of a back up recently.
The weekly Quorum Grain Monitor report notes that at Vancouver the vessel line up has expanded to 29 ships, which is more than the one-year average of 22, but is about the same as last year at this time.
At Prince Rupert the line up is seven, verses the one year average of five and five last year at this time.
Shipments out of Vancouver are up two percent compared to last year but Prince Rupert and Thunder Bay are each down 12 percent compared to last year.
In week 17 to Nov. 26 canola exports were 214,200 tonnes, up from 200,200 the week before, accoding to the CGC.
For the year, canola exports are 3.41 million up from 3.05 million at the same point last year.
Wheat exports in the week were 351,600 tonnes, up from 312,600 tonnes the week before.
For the year wheat shipments are 5.08 million tonnes, up from 4.72 million last year.
Durum shipments for the week were 115,400 tonnes, similar to 117,900 the week before.
For the year they are 1.3 million, up from 1.17 million last year.
Barley exports are strong at 596,800 tonnes for the year, up from 273,400 tonnes last year at the same time.
Bulk pea exports for the year are 887,200 tonnes, down from last year’s 1.657 million due to the lack of demand from India.
Bulk lentil exports are only 91,600 tonnes, down from 431,900 tonnes last year at this point.
CANOLA CRUSH
Canadian crushers processed 186,297 tonnes of canola in the week to Nov. 29, down 5.7 percent from last week.
That was about average for this year with 84 percent of capacity used.
The total for the year so far is 3.01 million tonnes, down slightly from 3.05 million at the same time last year.
OUTSIDE MARKETS
Canada’s economy created a better than expected 79,500 jobs in November, pushing the unemployment rate down to 5.9 percent, the lowest since February 2008.
The data caused investors to drive up the value of the Canadian dollar as analysts say the robust jobs picture indicates that the Bank of Canada could raise interest rates in 2018.
Statistics Canada said the gross domestic product grew at an annualized 1.7 percent in the third quarter, cooling from red hot growth in the first half of the year.
Private analysts expected 1.6 percent growth in the third quarter.
In the United States, the Senate Republicans said they had enough support to pass a major tax reform bill. But uncertainty rose as former national security adviser Michael Flynn pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI about contacts with Russia’s ambassador.
The Toronto Stock Exchange composite today closed at 16,044.17 down 23.31 points or 0.15 percent.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 41.65 points, or 0.17 percent, to 24,230.7, the S&P 500 lost 5.48 points, or 0.21 percent, to 2,642.1 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 26.39 points, or 0.38 percent, to 6,847.59.
For the week, the TSX composite fell 0.4 percent, the S&P 500 rose 1.5 percent, the Dow jumped 2.9 percent, and the Nasdaq fell 0.6 percent.
Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up 96 cents at US$58.36 per barrel.
In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US78.76 cents, up from 77.53 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.2697.
Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne.
Canola Jan 18 506.10s -3.50 -0.69%
Canola Mar 18 514.20s -4.20 -0.81%
Canola May 18 520.00s -4.80 -0.91%
Canola Jul 18 523.10s -5.00 -0.95%
Canola Nov 18 503.00s -4.20 -0.83%
American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.
Chicago
Soybeans Jan 18 994-2s +8-4 +0.86%
Soybeans Mar 18 1006-0s +8-2 +0.83%
Soybeans May 18 1017-0s +8-4 +0.84%
Soybeans Jul 18 1025-6s +8-4 +0.84%
Soybeans Aug 18 1026-4s +8-4 +0.83%
Soybean Meal Dec 17 328.2s +3.7 +1.14%
Soybean Meal Jan 18 330.2s +3.7 +1.13%
Soybean Meal Mar 18 333.5s +3.7 +1.12%
Soybean Oil Dec 17 33.60s -0.15 -0.44%
Soybean Oil Jan 18 33.69s -0.16 -0.47%
Soybean Oil Mar 18 33.91s -0.15 -0.44%
Corn Dec 17 344-6s +3-0 +0.88%
Corn Mar 18 358-6s +3-0 +0.84%
Corn May 18 366-4s +2-6 +0.76%
Corn Jul 18 374-4s +3-0 +0.81%
Corn Sep 18 381-4s +3-0 +0.79%
Oats Dec 17 247-2s -0-4 -0.20%
Oats Mar 18 263-2s unch unch
Oats May 18 269-0s -0-4 -0.19%
Oats Jul 18 273-6s -1-0 -0.36%
Oats Sep 18 275-6s -1-0 -0.36%
Wheat Dec 17 414-4s +5-2 +1.28%
Wheat Mar 18 438-4s +5-4 +1.27%
Wheat May 18 451-0s +6-0 +1.35%
Wheat Jul 18 464-2s +6-0 +1.31%
Wheat Sep 18 478-0s +5-2 +1.11%
Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Dec 17 610-4s +9-2 +1.54%
Spring Wheat Mar 18 631-4s +9-6 +1.57%
Spring Wheat May 18 638-0s +9-2 +1.47%
Spring Wheat Jul 18 639-6s +8-2 +1.31%
Spring Wheat Sep 18 631-2s +3-6 +0.60%
Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Dec 17 420-4s +6-0 +1.45%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 18 437-4s +6-0 +1.39%
Hard Red Wheat May 18 449-6s +5-6 +1.30%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 18 466-4s +5-6 +1.25%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 18 483-6s +5-6 +1.20%
Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade
Live Cattle Dec 17 117.225s -2.675 -2.23%
Live Cattle Feb 18 121.975s -3.000 -2.40%
Live Cattle Apr 18 123.025s -2.900 -2.30%
Feeder Cattle Jan 18 150.325s -3.850 -2.50%
Feeder Cattle Mar 18 148.025s -4.250 -2.79%
Feeder Cattle Apr 18 148.150s -4.200 -2.76%
Lean Hogs Dec 17 65.275s +1.000 +1.56%
Lean Hogs Feb 18 70.725s +0.950 +1.36%
Lean Hogs Apr 18 74.450s +0.600 +0.81%
Trade expects StatsCan will raise canola, wheat estimates
