Trade expects StatsCan will raise canola, wheat estimates

By Rod Nickel

WINNIPEG, Manitoba, Nov 30 (Reuters) — A poll of the trade shows Canadian farmers harvested the biggest canola crop on record, slightly larger than was expected in Statistics Canada’s September report.

Reuters surveyed 15 traders and analysts ahead of the StatsCan report due Dec. 6.

Wheat production is also seen higher than earlier expectations, as favourable weather in many areas produced big yields.

Statistics Canada’s report will be based on a farmer survey.

Canola production reached 20.2 million tonnes, according to the Reuters survey’s average estimate, up 2.5 percent from StatsCan’s September report and rising three percent from last year’s output.

StatsCan’s September report was based on satellite and climate data.

Earlier trade ideas of even-bigger canola production have diminished, meaning demand could strain supplies by summer, ahead of the next harvest, said Ken Ball, a commodities broker at PI Financial Corp.

“There is a lot of uncertainty on this (report) because we had a very late harvest. This one could have some surprises in it,” Ball said.

Canada is the world’s biggest canola producer and exporter, and a major wheat seller.

Production of all-wheat, which includes spring wheat, durum and a small volume of winter wheat, looks to total 28 million tonnes, according to the average estimate.

That output would be up three percent from StatsCan’s September report, but down 12 percent from a year ago.

The following are trade estimates for Statistics Canada’s report on 2017 crop production. See below:



Average estimate Lowest estimate Highest estimate StatCan Sept 2017 StatCan 2016
All wheat 28 26.8 29.5 27.1298 31.7286
Durum 4.6 4.2 5.2 4.2993 7.7618
Canola 20.2 19.8 21 19.7079 19.6005
Oats 3.8 3.6 4.1 3.8022 3.1946
Barley 7.5 7 7.8 7.3055 8.7836
Peas 4 3.8 4.2 3.8616 4.8359
Flax 0.517 0.5 0.56 0.501 0.588
Corn 14.1 13.5 14.6 14.3126 13.1931
Lentils 2.6 2.4 2.7 2.4386 3.2482
Soybeans 8.1 7.8 8.4 8.3211 6.5521

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