Canola up; markets await weather effect

WINNIPEG, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Futures canola contracts were up slightly on Tuesday, after a volatile session with heavy activity.

The weather forecast for the Prairies has called for rain over the next day to three days. If precipitation is sufficient enough, bids could be affected.Also, Prairie farmers re-seeded large amounts of their canola and have been dealing with insects, disease and other pests.

One trader suggested the market will likely enter a holding pattern for now, until the crops further develop. He noted that bids could ball back somewhat, due to nervousness in the market.

There were 39,712 contracts traded on Tuesday, which compares with Monday when 38,433 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 26,986 contracts traded.

Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

Price Change
Canola Jul 460.50 up 0.90
Nov 476.00 up 0.60
Jan 482.90 up 0.60
Mar 488.80 up 0.50

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were slightly stronger on Tuesday, the day after the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its weekly crop progress report.

Bids were up three-quarters of a cent to a penny per bushel.

In the report, soybeans reached 77 per cent planted, behind the five-year average of 93 per cent. The markets believe that 15 million to 18 million soybean acres will go unplanted this year due to excessively wet conditions.

Of the soybeans planted, the USDA reported that 55 per cent have emerged, which is well back of the five-year average of 84 per cent.
An analyst said the crop progress report was bullish, but had a bearish response.

The National Oilseed Processors Association reported that 4.213 million tonnes were crushed in May, up 2.6 per cent from this time last year.

CORN futures were weaker on Tuesday, due to a round of profit-taking with prices down five to six cents per bushel.

The USDA’s crop progress report stated 92 per cent of corn has been planted, catching up to the five-year average of 100 per cent. However, the markets estimated 7 million to 8 million corn acres could go unplanted in 2019.

Emergence came in at 79 per cent, off the pace of 97 per cent. Corn was rated as 59 per cent good to excellent condition, that’s down from 78 per cent this time last year.

Agroconsult estimated Brazil’s 2018/19 corn production to top 101.198 million tonnes, with about 38.0 million tonnes in exports.

WHEAT futures were down on Tuesday, due to technical selling combined with spillover from corn.

Price in Chicago and Minneapolis slipped seven to eight cents per bushel, while Kansas City bids dropped by more than 10 cents.

The USDA said spring wheat emergence was two points behind pace at 95 per cent. Two per cent has headed out, well back of the five-year average of 12 per cent. The condition was rated as 77 per cent good to excellent, on par with this time last year at 78 per cent.

As for winter wheat, 89 per cent has headed out, back of the pace of 95 per cent. Nationally, eight per cent has been harvested, behind the five-year average of 20 per cent. This year’s crop was rated as 64 per cent good to excellent condition, significantly better than 39 per cent at this point in 2018.

Drought conditions forced Australia to drop its 2019/20 wheat export projections by more than 18 per cent to 11.70 million tonnes.

Japan purchased nearly 62,600 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the U.S.

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York was up $1.97 at US$53.90 per barrel.

In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US74.66 cents, down from 74.59 centsthe previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.3394.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne.

Canola Jul 19  460.50s  +0.90  +0.20%

Canola Nov 19  476.00s  +0.60  +0.13%

Canola Jan 20  482.90s  +0.60  +0.12%

Canola Mar 20  488.80s  +0.50  +0.10%

Canola May 20  493.30s  +0.30  +0.06%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.

 

Chicago

Soybean Jul 19  913-4s  +0-6  +0.08%

Soybean Aug 19  920-2s  +1-0  +0.11%

Soybean Sep 19  927-2s  +1-0  +0.11%

Soybean Nov 19  940-2s  +0-6  +0.08%

Soybean Jan 20  952-2s  +1-4  +0.16%

 

Soybean Meal Jul 19  322.0s  -2.3  -0.71%

Soybean Meal Aug 19  323.5s  -2.2  -0.68%

Soybean Meal Sep 19  325.3s  -2.3  -0.70%

 

Soybean Oil Jul 19  28.33s  +0.19  +0.68%

Soybean Oil Aug 19  28.47s  +0.19  +0.67%

Soybean Oil Sep 19  28.58s  +0.18  +0.63%

 

Corn Jul 19  449-6s  -5-0  -1.10%

Corn Sep 19  455-4s  -6-0  -1.30%

Corn Dec 19  463-0s  -5-4  -1.17%

Corn Mar 20  468-2s  -4-6  -1.00%

Corn May 20  469-0s  -5-0  -1.05%

 

Oats Jul 19  297-4s  unch  unch

Oats Sep 19  292-2s  -0-2  -0.09%

Oats Dec 19  294-2s  +3-0  +1.03%

Oats Mar 20  298-0s  +3-2  +1.10%

Oats May 20  297-2s  +3-4  +1.19%

 

Wheat Jul 19  531-4s  -8-0  -1.48%

Wheat Sep 19  535-4s  -7-2  -1.34%

Wheat Dec 19  546-6s  -7-2  -1.31%

Wheat Mar 20  558-2s  -6-0  -1.06%

Wheat May 20  562-2s  -5-2  -0.93%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Jul 19  552-2s  -8-0  -1.43%

Spring Wheat Sep 19  558-6s  -8-0  -1.41%

Spring Wheat Dec 19  571-2s  -7-6  -1.34%

Spring Wheat Mar 20  583-6s  -7-4  -1.27%

Spring Wheat May 20  591-6s  -7-2  -1.21%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Jul 19  465-2s  -10-2  -2.16%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 19  477-0s  -10-4  -2.15%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 19  499-2s  -9-6  -1.92%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 20  520-6s  -8-6  -1.65%

Hard Red Wheat May 20  532-6s  -8-6  -1.62%

 

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade

Live Cattle Jun 19  109.450s  unch  unch

Live Cattle Aug 19  105.550s  -0.075  -0.07%

Live Cattle Oct 19  107.050s  +0.350  +0.33%

 

Feeder Cattle Aug 19  137.250s  +0.325  +0.24%

Feeder Cattle Sep 19  137.600s  +0.425  +0.31%

Feeder Cattle Oct 19  137.700s  +0.550  +0.40%

 

Lean Hogs Jul 19  81.475s  -1.575  -1.90%

Lean Hogs Aug 19  81.700s  -0.550  -0.67%

Lean Hogs Oct 19  76.600s  -0.175  -0.23%

 

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