Canola futures up in heavy trade, but confusion rules

WINNIPEG – Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Futures canola contracts were stronger on Monday, in a heavy volume of trade.

“Big volumes, big spread. The market doesn’t know which way to go,” commented a Winnipeg-based analyst.

The lack of significant rainfall on the Prairies wasn’t enough to help crops. Meanwhile in the United States, there was a great deal of rain across the Midwest and Plains, with the forecast for more this week.

As canola continues to struggle to grow on the Prairies, there is now the likelihood of U.S. farmers being unable to plant all of their soybeans.

There were 38,433 contracts traded on Monday, which compares with Friday when 27,836 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 34,460 contracts traded.
Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

Price Change
Canola Jul 459.60 up 4.70
Nov 475.40 up 5.10
Jan 482.30 up 6.20
Mar 488.30 up 6.80

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were stronger on Monday, due to excessive rain over much of the United States Midwest and Plains, with more precipitation in this week’s forecast.

The rain has caused further planting delays and raised the possibility of 15 million to 18 million acres of U.S. soybeans going unplanted this year.

With the U.S. Department of Agriculture releasing its weekly crop progress report later this afternoon, the markets projected approximately 82 per cent of soybeans to be planted. The five-year average at this point has been 93 per cent.

The USDA issues its crop acreage report on June 28, and the markets expect the report will illustrate the shift from corn to soybeans.

The USDA reported in its weekly export inspections for soybeans were about 675,000 tonnes.

CORN futures were stronger on Monday, due to spillover from soybeans.

The markets predicted corn planting to reach 90 to 95 planted. The five-year average has been 100 per cent. As with soybeans, the possibility has arisen that corn acres could go unplanted.

The USDA export inspections were about 654,000 tonnes.

High water levels have closed several sections along the Mississippi River, that’s created a backlog of several hundred corn-laden barges. It was unknown as to when movement would resume.

Brazil’s 2018/19 corn crop has been projected to hit 101.20 million tonnes.

WHEAT futures were mixed on Monday, with a little bit of spillover that helped Chicago wheat, but Kansas City and Minneapolis bids lost ground on technical maneuvering.

The markets pegged spring wheat conditions to remain the same at last week’s 81 per cent good to excellent condition.

Also, the markets believe U.S. winter wheat harvest has hit an estimated 14 per cent complete.

The USDA’s weekly export inspections were 375,000 tonnes.

Due to dry conditions, Australia lowered its wheat production for this year from 22.50 million tonnes to 21.2 million tonnes. Their exports are expected to drop from 13.4 million tonnes to 11.0 million tonnes.

 

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York was down 58 cents at US$51.93 per barrel.

In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US74.59 cents, down from 74.71 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.3407.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne.

Canola Jul 19 459.60s +4.70 +1.03%

Canola Nov 19 475.40s +5.10 +1.08%

Canola Jan 20 482.30s +6.20 +1.30%

Canola Mar 20 488.30s +6.80 +1.41%

Canola May 20 493.00s +7.30 +1.50%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.

 

Chicago

Soybean Jul 19 912-6s +16-0 +1.78%

Soybean Aug 19 919-2s +16-2 +1.80%

Soybean Sep 19 926-2s +16-2 +1.79%

Soybean Nov 19 939-4s +16-0 +1.73%

Soybean Jan 20 950-6s +15-6 +1.68%

 

Soybean Meal Jul 19 324.3s +0.8 +0.25%

Soybean Meal Aug 19 325.7s +1.0 +0.31%

Soybean Meal Sep 19 327.6s +1.2 +0.37%

 

Soybean Oil Jul 19 28.14s +0.53 +1.92%

Soybean Oil Aug 19 28.28s +0.51 +1.84%

Soybean Oil Sep 19 28.40s +0.49 +1.76%

 

Corn Jul 19 454-6s +1-6 +0.39%

Corn Sep 19 461-4s +3-2 +0.71%

Corn Dec 19 468-4s +5-0 +1.08%

Corn Mar 20 473-0s +5-4 +1.18%

Corn May 20 474-0s +5-4 +1.17%

 

Oats Jul 19 297-4s -5-2 -1.73%

Oats Sep 19 292-4s -4-0 -1.35%

Oats Dec 19 291-2s -0-6 -0.26%

Oats Mar 20 294-6s -0-2 -0.08%

Oats May 20 293-6s +0-4 +0.17%

 

Wheat Jul 19 539-4s +1-0 +0.19%

Wheat Sep 19 542-6s +0-6 +0.14%

Wheat Dec 19 554-0s +0-6 +0.14%

Wheat Mar 20 564-2s +1-2 +0.22%

Wheat May 20 567-4s +2-4 +0.44%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Jul 19 560-2s -3-0 -0.53%

Spring Wheat Sep 19 566-6s -3-6 -0.66%

Spring Wheat Dec 19 579-0s -2-2 -0.39%

Spring Wheat Mar 20 591-2s -1-6 -0.30%

Spring Wheat May 20 599-0s -1-4 -0.25%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Jul 19 475-4s -0-6 -0.16%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 19 487-4s -1-0 -0.20%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 19 509-0s -0-4 -0.10%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 20 529-4s -0-2 -0.05%

Hard Red Wheat May 20 541-4s -0-2 -0.05%

 

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade

Live Cattle Jun 19 109.450s +0.675 +0.62%

Live Cattle Aug 19 105.625s +1.350 +1.29%

Live Cattle Oct 19 106.700s +1.225 +1.16%

 

Feeder Cattle Aug 19 136.925s +1.400 +1.03%

Feeder Cattle Sep 19 137.175s +1.375 +1.01%

Feeder Cattle Oct 19 137.150s +1.400 +1.03%

 

Lean Hogs Jul 19 83.050s +1.700 +2.09%

Lean Hogs Aug 19 82.250s +1.625 +2.02%

Lean Hogs Oct 19 76.775s +1.675 +2.23%

About the author

Markets at a glance

Copyright © 2019. All market data is provided by Barchart Market Data Solutions. Information is provided 'as is' and solely for informational purposes, not for trading purposes or advice. To see all exchange delays and terms of use, please see disclaimer.

explore

Stories from our other publications