By Ros Krasny
WASHINGTON, March 10 (Reuters) – Projected U.S. corn carryout for 2013-14 continues to fall, consistent with the recent rally in futures, and world soybean supplies will be smaller after crops in Brazil and Paraguay were hit by dry weather, the U.S. agricultural department said on Monday.
U.S. 2013-14 soybean carryout was trimmed on strong export demand, while expected U.S. wheat ending stocks were unchanged from February. A total of 2.7 milion tonnes was cut from South American soybean production versus a month ago.
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The monthly supply and demand report contained few big surprises. Grain traders are looking ahead to the annual prospective plantings and quarterly grain stocks reports due on March 31 for a bigger market impact.
The USDA forecast 1.456 billion bushels of corn will remain when the U.S. crop is ready for harvest by late summer, down from 1.481 billion in February and a third consecutive monthly cut. Projected exports were raised by 25 million bu.
Grain traders and analysts had forecast corn stocks at an average of 1.488 billion bu.
The stocks-to-use ratio for U.S. corn in 2013-14 will be 10.9 percent, the USDA said, down from 11.1 percent forecast in February and 13.7 percent as recently as December.
In general, the lower the ratio, the higher the potential for prices to climb. In that vein, corn futures have risen for seven weeks on a continuation basis.
USDA cited “stronger world imports and the rising pace of shipments in recent weeks” for its 25-million-bu. hike in projected U.S. corn exports.
DRYNESS HITS BRAZIL’S SOYBEAN CROP
USDA trimmed its projected 2013-14 U.S. ending stocks for soybeans by five million bu. to 145 million, barely above the 2012-13 drought-affected level of 141 million.
U.S. exports for 2013-14 were raised by 20 million bu., balanced by higher imports and a smaller crush tied to soft soymeal demand. The average season soybean farm price was raised by 25 cents per bu., to $12.95.
USDA reversed last month’s increase to Brazil’s soybean production citing “hot, dry weather in the south when much of the crop was in the flowering and filling stages.”
It cut Brazil’s crop to 88.5 million tonnes from a record high forecast of 90 million. Traders, on average, had forecast the crop at 88.1 million tonnes. Paraguay’s soybean crop was also cut, to 8.1 million tonnes from 9.3 million.
World soybean year end stocks tightened to 70.64 million tonnes from 73.0 million last month.
Global corn carryout was raised to 158.47 million tonnes from 157.3 million, and wheat stocks nudged up to 183.8 million from 183.7 million.
Strong wheat demand continues from the Middle East and North Africa, including Iran, Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Syria, Algeria, Iraq and Turkey, USDA said. Higher exports are expected from the European Union and Russia.
U.S. wheat carryout for 2013-14 held at 558 million bu., following a large cut in February.
The average trade forecast was 570 million bu. Stocks of soft red winter wheat were higher and those of hard red spring wheat fell, reflecting relative export demand.
Ending stocks of U.S. oats, which recently reached record high prices, were trimmed to 157 million bu. from 164 million on smaller imports.
