CHICAGO, Ill. — South America’s corn, soybean and wheat crops should benefit from a weak El Nino that is already in place, says a meteorologist.
“There is an 86 percent correlation between El Nino and above average rainfall in southern Brazil and Argentina,” said Bryce Anderson, DTN agricultural meteorologist.
“If El Nino is in effect, that’s a rainmaker for South America.”
He believes an El Nino weather system has been in place for two months and will remain in effect for winter and possibly spring.
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“With at least a weak El Nino going on at this point, it is looking quite favourable for their production this year,” Anderson he said at the DTN Ag Summit 2014.
Alastair Stewart, DTN’s South American correspondent, said soybean seeding is 92 percent complete in Brazil, although a lack of rain delayed it by a couple of weeks in the Mato Grosso region.
“Since late October it has started raining and they essentially have caught up,” he said during an interview at the conference.
Planting is complete in the south but a little behind in the northeast, where it is dry in a couple of regions.
“Generally speaking, the crop is looking in pretty good condition,” said Stewart.
There has also been some dryness in Rio Grande do Sul and Parana del sol and Parana in the south, but he isn’t too concerned.
“The long-term forecasts are for decent amounts of rain in those regions, so there is nothing to worry about yet.”
Weather conditions in December and January will determine the fate of Brazil’s crops.
Soybean acres are up three to five percent. Increased acres, the prospect for good yields and the condensed planting window in Mato Grosso will put a lot of pressure on Brazil’s transportation logistics when the crop is harvested in February.
First crop corn acres in Brazil are down anywhere from five to 10 percent because of lackluster prices.
“You don’t get the yields in most parts of Brazil that you do in the U.S.,” said Stewart.
The second corn crop, which follows soybeans, now accounts for up to two-thirds of the country’s production.
It is unclear how many acres will be seeded.
The margins in growing corn are negative at today’s prices, but growers need to plant a cover crop for agronomic reasons, and corn is the best alternative.
Stewart expects growers to plant the usual amount of second crop corn, but they will scrimp on fertilizer and use cheap hybrids.
There will also be challenges getting the crop seeded in a timely manner because the soybean crop was two weeks late in Mato Grosso.
The combination of low first crop corn acres and the prospect for reduced yields in the second crop could result in a significant production decrease for the crop.
Rainfall has been abundant in Argentina. The heartland of the grain production region has adequate to surplus soil moisture, while it is a little dry in the south.
Seeding of corn and soybeans is 50 percent complete. Soybean acres are up a couple percent and corn acres are down a couple percent.
“Everything is going fairly well at the moment,” said Stewart.
However, the country’s economic instability and almost worthless peso is causing growers to cut back on inputs.
“People are spending as little as possible on their crops.”
It is one of the reasons soybean acres are up. Soybeans are a less input-intensive crop than corn.
Reduced input use should result in lower yields, offsetting some of the yield-boosting potential of El Nino in Argentina.
sean.pratt@producer.com
