Meteorologist says ‘it’s pretty hard to come up with a production problem’ when the weather phenomenon is in effect
CHICAGO, Ill. — There is a growing consensus that El Nino has finally arrived, which means another good year for crop production.
“We think El Nino has been in place probably since August,” said Bryce Anderson, DTN’s agricultural meteorologist.
The Japan Meteorological Agency also said that the weather phenomenon, which is associated with a warming of sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, has been around since summer and will continue through winter.
Anderson said that bodes well for crop production in the Western Hemisphere.
“When El Nino is in effect, it’s pretty hard to come up with a production problem,” he told delegates attending the DTN Ag Summit 2014.
In February, forecasters were calling for a strong El Nino rivaling the intensity of the one in 1997-98, which was one of the Top 5 in history.
They kept predicting an El Nino throughout spring and summer, but it never materialized. Anderson suspects they are now gun shy about declaring its arrival.
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He is convinced it is already here, albeit a weak one.
If it weren’t for its arrival, he would be forecasting dry conditions across much of the United States because the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation are both in a positive phase.
“That relationship has a fairly high correlation to a drier situation over much of the U.S.,” said Anderson.
However, El Nino trumps those long-term weather influencers. It should result in mild winter and spring conditions for much of the U.S. and an easing of drought conditions in southern California and the southern U.S. Plains.
“This is not a bad forecast for areas that need some improvement on soil moisture,” he said.
There has already been a big improvement in drought in some of the key winter wheat growing states such as Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas.
“Over much of our major crop areas, we are looking at a fairly substantial soil moisture supply,” said Anderson.
His winter forecast for Western Canada calls for mild temperatures and below normal precipitation.
“We’re looking at a little bit drier trend for Western Canada,” he said.
Anderson doesn’t see any real trouble spots developing for any of the key production regions in North America, which is reminiscent of last year.
“This year could be fairly similar to (2014) with mild conditions, and some areas that are very dry are likely to get the moisture they need,” he said.
The production outlook for South America is also promising because El Nino tends to be “a rainmaker” for southern Brazil and Argentina.
India is one of the few major production regions where there could be problems. Soil moisture conditions are already poor in the central and northwest portions of the country, and El Nino could make matters worse by reducing monsoon rains.
Anderson is also keeping an eye on eastern Ukraine, where it is dry in some key corn and winter wheat growing areas.
Soil moisture conditions are adequate to surplus in Russia’s wheat areas. Earlier concerns about dryness have evaporated.
“It doesn’t look like they are building for a disaster,” said Anderson.
Soil moisture conditions in China’s corn growing regions are variable, but there are no big concerns.
There are dry pockets in Europe, including Spain, portions of France, northern Germany and Poland, but in general soil moisture conditions are favourable across much of the continent.
