Canadian pea exporters could face stiff competition into the Indian subcontinent in 2013-14.
Chad Popowich, director of international grain–pulses with Viterra, said a good portion of Black Sea pea exports made their way into feed markets in Europe in 2012-13 due to a global shortage of feed crops.
He doesn’t expect a repeat of that sales pattern in 2013-14.
“The feed market just isn’t there to support that type of volume,” Popowich told delegates attending the International Pulse Trade and Industries Confederation conference held in Singapore in April.
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That means peas from the Black Sea region will likely compete with Canadian peas in the Indian subcontinent.
“That is the major difference this upcoming year compared to last year,” he said in a video recording of the conference.
Marlene Boersch, managing partner of Mercantile Consulting Venture, recently completed a report for Pulse Canada on the marketing threat posed by Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan.
She determined that Russia is the biggest threat. Boersch estimates the country will export 600,000 tonnes of pulses in 2012-13, including about 420,000 tonnes of peas.
A lot of those peas were shipped to feed markets. She agreed with Popowich that those sales will likely be shifted to the Indian subcontinent this year.
Boersch estimates Russia produced about 1.5 million tonnes of peas last year. Output will likely jump to 1.75 million tonnes in 2013, meaning there will be more supplies available for export.
She expects the country to ship between 400,000 and 500,000 tonnes in 2013-14.
Russia has an advantage over Canada in freight costs to the Indian subcontinent. It takes nearly 26 days for a boat of peas to travel from Vancouver to Chennai, India, versus about 15 days from Novorossiysk, Russia to the same destination.
“They won’t bother us much into China because they have a freight disadvantage there,” said Boersch.
France is another significant pea exporter. Stat Publishing is forecasting 245,000 tonnes of exports in 2013-14, up from 195,000 tonnes this crop year.
However, 97.4 percent of the country’s exports to date in 2012-13 have been to European Union countries.
Stat expects pea inventories to be tight in France, which will again make it difficult for France to compete with Canada in China and the Indian subcontinent.
Stat forecasts 494,000 tonnes of Ukrainian pea production, up 12 percent from last year. Exports are forecast at 189,000 tonnes, also up 12 percent. India is the likely destination for the bulk of those peas.
Boersch said Canadian peas will also face tough competition from Australian desi chickpeas. Australia produced 630,000 tonnes of desi and 80,000 tonnes of kabuli chickpeas in 2012.
“That was their biggest crop ever on chickpeas and I would expect something relatively similar if they get as good a yield as they did last year but of course in Australia you never know.”
Stat is forecasting 705,800 tonnes of Australian chickpea production, down slightly from last year’s record 748,400 tonnes. Exports are forecast at 589,400 tonnes, down from 705,300 tonnes last year. The vast majority of those chickpeas are shipped to India and Bangladesh.
Of course the biggest influence on pea prices will be Canada’s crop, which accounts for 29 percent of world production. Statistics Canada is forecasting 3.4 million acres of peas, up five percent from last year.
Stat Publishing said in a May 30 report that Saskatchewan farmers may not be able to plant up to eight percent of their intended pea acres.
Boersch isn’t in that camp but she is starting to doubt the forecast for a five percent increase because lentil prices jumped about two cents per pound prior to seeding, so lentils might steal some pea acres.
She also wonders about pea yields given the late seeding.
