As swaths float across northern Interlake fields and farmers fight to make swathers and combines function in the mud, some producers wonder if the flood will affect 2009 spring seed supplies.
“There’s always that old nagging question. Am I going to be able to get my seed for next spring,” says Garry Van Den Bussche of Brett Young Seeds in Oak Bluff, Man.
Many farmers in flooded areas who normally save their own seed for replanting the following year may be unable to do so because of poor yields.The weather may drive up seed demand and reduce supplies.
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But Van Den Bussche says he thinks farmers in the flooded areas might see the seed situation as more urgent than it really is. He adds that there are abundant seed supplies in southern Manitoba.
Keith Johnson, general manager of Johnson Seeds in Arborg, Man., says many producers will need to buy seed, but it shouldn’t be a major concern.
“The harvest south and west of Winnipeg went well, so there’s good quantities of quality seed.”
Dennis Cloutier, president of Cloutier Agra Seeds, at St. Norbert, Man., agrees that enough seed should be available for 2009, but he acknowledges that producers not accustomed to forking out money for seed might find it hard to swallow.
“Interlake farmers are the ones affected most by this rain. The saying is that water attracts water and I think that’s the situation in the northern Interlake again this year.”
Cloutier agrees with Johnson that many growers dislike buying seed, especially spring wheat, from outside sources.
“They should look at the bright side of buying new seed once in a while,” he says.
“Research shows over and over that good quality seed emerges quicker, has better plant vigour and subsequently gives better yields as long as nothing goes wrong during the growing season.”
The northern Interlake is usually productive for farmers growing timothy and alfalfa seed. Johnson says nearly two-thirds of timothy seed fields have been harvested and the seed is not bad. The remaining fields await drier conditions.
“The alfalfa seed crop suffered the most damage this year,” says Johnson.
The problems started with cool temperatures during early summer. Then the plants grew too much and pollinated seed became lodged in the crop.
“Then with the wet conditions, the seeds aborted or just rotted away. There was no visible amount of seed that warranted trying to harvest.”
Johnson says many alfalfa seed fields were written off and have been baled for hay.
Brett Young also sells forage seed. Although the company has some growers in the flooded northern Interlake, its main forage crop is perennial ryegrass, which is mostly grown close to Oak Bluff, Man., and not affected by the Interlake flood.
Van Den Bussche says that in the forage seed market, long-term seed availability and prices are controlled by larger factors than a regional flood.
“Canadian and American forage seed growers are reducing their acreages because of high prices for corn, soybean, canola and wheat.
“These other crops appear to be more lucrative. And soil is versatile. A field that grows one crop this year can easily convert to a more profitable crop next year.”
Van Den Bussche says Brett Young has maintained its forage seed acreage so far, but reports show a trend toward fewer forage seed acres.
He says there is a puzzling aspect of the situation that most people have not grasped.
“There’s a general increase in demand for forage seed from the turf industry. This demand will continue to grow. At the same time, we’re seeing a general drawdown in forage seed supplies.”
He thinks simple supply and demand principles will indicate strong forage seed prices over the long term.
“But, as all this is going on, forage seed growers are looking at moving more acres into corn and other crops. It seems that every spike in corn prices prompts another change in cropping patterns.”
Van Den Bussche says the question in the availability of hybrid canola seed isn’t Manitoba weather. It’s the situation in Chile and southern Alberta. As of Sept. 3, he says the Chilean supply looks good.
“And I’ve just seen the report from our production manager and Leth-bridge is not far off our initial forecasts.”
This is despite powerful hailstorms in that growing area mid summer.
“The open pollinated seed production is outside the Lethbridge area. If those growers are in an area with flooding, we may have some pressure on those open pollinated varieties. That will become a question of how soon they can get into wet fields.”
Cloutier says much of the seed he buys comes from the Red River Valley. The 100 millimetre dump of rain in June damaged canola and late-seeded cereal crops, but the situation wasn’t as bad as it first seemed.
“Through July and August, we got timely rains in the right amount. The soybeans would have liked a little more heat, but they thrive on moisture, so they did well.
“If you’re worried about seed, remember that seed is very mobile. You’re only 100 miles away from any kind of seed you might need.”
Farmers might also have noticed this fall a trend toward earlier advertising by seed suppliers, perhaps fuelled in part by flooded fields.
The other factor may be that seed prices for 2009 are predicted to be higher because commodity prices are higher. Seed suppliers want to give their customers a chance to buy before prices climb further.
Van Den Bussche is skeptical of the early advertising.
“Personally, if I’m in the midst of a muddy wet harvest, then I’m in no mood to think about seed. I’m worried about getting my crop off. The last thing I need to think about is seed for next year.
“On the other hand, if it’s a smooth early harvest and things are looking good, then yes, I’ll think about seed in August.
“The other thing growers should keep in mind is there are companies who say they’re running out of seed in October, yet they still have seed for sale in April. You have to figure out who’s giving you the straight goods and who’s playing a game.”
