There is a jarring disconnect in the headlines related to two major themes in global agriculture.
One set of headlines tends to run in the news pages, the other in markets.
In the former, there are warnings that we are one crop breeding cycle away from global starvation, that a third of the human race is malnourished, that the globe’s population is about to increase by two billion people and that the ravages of climate change will severely test agricultural capacity.
The other set of headlines talk about a global surplus of crops that is the largest in 10 years and grain prices falling below the cost of production. Twenty percent of the globe’s population will be obese by 2020, and 30 percent of the food that is produced goes to waste.
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Dickens’ words “it was the best of times, it was the worst of times,” come to mind.
The unbiased observer knows that contradictory trends and realities can exist at the same time.
The trick is to understand agriculture’s strengths and weaknesses and develop policies that lead to an environmentally and financially sustainable system capable of producing enough food.
And to do that, we must recognize that this is not just an agricultural issue. For the most part, hunger is not caused by shortage of food but by poverty, conflict and poor government.
Farmers can usually produce what is needed if the market relationship between them and consumers is not disrupted by government interference and if they have access to modern technology.
Indeed, it appears too easy to overproduce in countries with advanced economies and leading edge technology, such as in North America and Europe.
Food is so cheap that it is easy to waste it through such things as culling of less than perfectly shaped fruits and vegetables, excessively large restaurant portions and needless disposal because of misunderstood “best before” dates.
The chronic overcapacity to produce corn in North America led to the push to develop the ethanol industry to consume the surplus.
Nevertheless, this horn of plenty should not be taken for granted, given an uncertain climate, nor should we forget the resources needed and the environmental impacts.
The goal should not be to simply grow more but to grow smarter.
Research is needed to develop crops that require fewer inputs of fertilizer and chemicals. Improved and more efficient productivity from existing farmland could allow protection of environmentally sensitive areas.
Developing more water efficient crops would ease the pressure on overtaxed aquifers and reduce risks as we face a more volatile climate from global warming.
Poor subsistence farmers have different needs than large commercial farmers, but they too would benefit from access to modern technology delivered at an appropriate scale and price.
Agriculture policy development should not be misled by apocalyptic warnings, but by the knowledge that when farmers have the right tools and market signals, they will produce the food needed by a growing population.
