Recently I had the opportunity to do two things I enjoy most in my job: 1) talk to economists; 2) talk to farmers.
And it created something we always hope for in journalism, but often don’t see arise: highlighting a clear opportunity to confront an issue and crack it while there’s still time to address it.
What I was exploring was the situation – perhaps plight – of the Canadian dairy industry and how to give it a positive future. Economists I spoke with and research I examined suggest the industry is caught in a vise it is having enormous trouble escaping: 1) the domestic market is essentially stagnant; 2) more foreign imports are coming in and even more will come in due to pending trade agreements; 3) Canada is banned from exporting its way out of the situation due to past agreements to preserve the supply management system.
Read Also
Agriculture needs to prepare for government spending cuts
As government makes necessary cuts to spending, what can be reduced or restructured in the budgets for agriculture?
But the farmers I spoke with, and I chatted with about a dozen during the course of working on this issue, all seemed truly optimistic (not just talking a good game for a reporter) and confident that they could find not just a way to survive into the future, but thrive in that future.
You can see the the stories in the package here: The Big Squeeze
Both of these professional perspectives make sense. On a rational basis, the pressures on the Canadian dairy farming industry seem crippling when looking out 20 years. Economists don’t see any easy way out of the vise, and they are stating the truth they see. On a basis of farming wisdom, the farmers are optimistic and positive. They have seen multiple challenges over the decades, some daunting and almost overwhelming, and have always overcome them, something they have faith they will do as the future unfolds.
The economists think something radical will be needed to give the industry a real future, beyond ever-shrinking and stagnating into irrelevance. The farmers seem confident something radical, while preserving their stability, will arise at some point and then they’ll keep farming.
All of this deals with pressures that won’t be dangerous and crippling for five, ten or fifteen years, so perhaps they can be forgotten about now. In fact, the CETA and TPP trade deals recently signed with most of the world’s significant trading nations preserve Canada’s dairy system mostly as-is, so one could argue that we can forget about this issue for now.
But I think that would be foolish, and that’s a perspective I also heard from Ron Bonnett, the president of the Canadian Federation of Agriculture. The deals are set and likely will be approved. We know the shape of the next few years. There is a new government in place. Now is the best time to tackle the dairy industry’s profound issues and set it up for not just survival but also success and growth in the future. This is a situation that will be easy to ignore now that the short-term pressure is off, but that would be a tragedy since that makes the future crisis worse.
Farmers are confident a miracle solution will arise that cranks back the growing pressure of the economic vise the dairy farming industry is trapped in today. Now would be a good time to start working on that miracle.
