NEW ORLEANS, La. — Investment now pouring into the wheat industry should deliver tangible results within a decade, says an agricultural economist.
Bill Wilson, a professor at North Dakota State University, estimates seed technology companies will spend $2 billion over the next 10 years on wheat research.
“We have more money being spent today on wheat technology than ever before,” he told the 2014 Oilseed & Grain Trade Summit.
“That’s a golden opportunity for wheat in this country primarily, but in other countries as well.”
Many seed technology companies have entered into partnerships with universities, government organizations and private companies to develop genetically modified wheat.
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“The most important trait that’s being developed amongst these companies at this time is stress traits,” he said.
Wilson said seed companies see boundless opportunities in applying their technologies to wheat.
“In the economic analysis we’ve done, it’s a very profitable outlook for developers of GM traits,” he said.
However, private investment in wheat has been slow to materialize in Canada, said Tom Steve, general manager of the Alberta Wheat Commission.
“There is growing momentum, but we certainly haven’t seen a huge influx of dollars,” he said.
Steve has seen estimates that $30 to $32 million a year is invested in wheat research in Canada.
“The majority of the varietal development is in the public domain, either at Agriculture Canada or the universities,” he said.
Private companies are showing signs of growing interest in wheat research. Bayer CropScience Canada recently broke ground on its new wheat breeding centre near Saskatoon, while Syngenta Canada is teaming up with the Canadian Wheat Alliance and KWS to work on a double haploid wheat initiative.
“That’s an indication that they’re going to be investing heavily in research,” said Steve.
Wheat has a lot of catching up to do because most research money has been spent on canola and pulses in recent decades. Steve said he has heard estimates that $80 million a year is spent on canola research in Canada.
“The model that we operate under doesn’t lend itself to seed companies making a significant enough return to invest heavily in cereals research,” said Steve.
He believes that could change with the passage of Bill C-18, which is proposed federal legislation that bolsters plant breeders’ rights.
The U.S. National Association of Wheat Growers is encouraged by the resurgence of private sector investment in wheat breeding programs.
Wheat is the world’s largest crop in terms of acreage, but annual production has dropped below corn and rice in the past 20 years.
“Since 1994, corn yields have increased approximately 67 percent in the United States alone, while spring and winter wheat yields have increased half that amount,” NAWG first vice-president Brett Blankenship said in a recent op-ed in the Des Moines Register.
“For the world’s largest crop that is a staple nutrient resource for 30 percent of the world’s population, the production lag is astounding.”
Wheat had been a neglected crop since 2004 when Monsanto abandoned its Roundup Ready wheat program.
That all changed in 2008 when the price of spring wheat shot up to $25 a bushel due to a worldwide shortage of the crop.
“End users, in the United States primarily and around the world, said we’ve got to find a technological solution to this,” said Wilson.
Grower groups and millers in the United States, Australia and Canada signed a trilateral statement of support for the development of GM wheat in 2009.
Wheat yields have been growing by one to two percent per year through marker-assisted breeding.
Wilson expects yields to increase by 20 to 25 percent when the first GM wheat crops hit the market around 2022.
Experimental GM wheat lines in Australia have delivered a 20 percent yield bump over conventional lines under drought conditions.
He is forecasting average GM wheat yields of 52 bushels per acre in North Dakota once the technology is introduced.
Drought tolerant wheat is expected to deliver $350 million of value to North American farmers annually.
Genetic modification isn’t the only technology being advanced for wheat. Non-GM technologies are also emerging for the crop, including hybridization and apomixis.
“We’re going to see new technologies competing for wheat. That’s a great thing,” said Wilson.
