Farmers are hoping and praying for a couple of weeks of good weather to finish off their crops.
For most, that would allow them to harvest a below-par but respectable crop. For others, it would prevent a poor crop becoming a terrible crop.
“It would be a disaster right now,” said Sturgis, Sask., farmer Jim Hallick about the threat of frost on the late crops in his area.
“We have problems with livestock feed and (a frost) would solve that problem, but it would create a bigger one.”
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For Todd Stewart, a Portage la Prairie, Man., bean grower, a couple of weeks of dry, warm weather will provide a good crop.
“Right now they look pretty strong. It depends how much rain we get in the next 24 to 48 hours,” said Stewart, worrying about mould if the crops get saturated.
On Aug. 21 Statistics Canada released its first crop production estimate for the 2009-10 crop year. It predicts a crop much smaller than last year’s big harvest, but not disastrously small.
Only slightly more than 16 million tonnes of spring wheat are expected to be harvested, and 9.5 million tonnes of canola. That’s well below 2008’s 18.4 million tonne spring wheat crop and 12.6 million tonne canola crop, but within the range most analysts had before the report was released.
Barley production will drop 24 percent, oats will drop 30 percent and winter wheat will plunge 37.2 percent, StatsCan said.
But hidden in the estimates is the huge range of possibilities that still straddles the prairie crop, which is much later than usual and has suffered from production problems in almost all areas.
In central Alberta and west-central Saskatchewan, dry conditions hurt crops early, while in eastern Manitoba saturation and cold weather bogged down crops through much of the summer. Virtually no area has reported ideal conditions.
Farmers and analysts everywhere are talking about the danger of frost, which should still be at least two weeks away for most areas based on average first-frost dates.
But folklore holds that full moons pose extra frost risks, and a full moon appears above the Prairies Sept. 4.
“We’ve got a full moon coming and some people hang their hat on that,” said Hallick, discounting its significance. Weather experts say full moons and frosts are unrelated, but people connect them because if they can see a full moon in the sky, it means there is little cloud cover and little to hold warm air over night, making frost more likely. If there is cloud cover, the full moon isn’t noticed.
Right now crops in Hallick’s area still have good potential.
“The crops are starting to turn. If we get 10 days to two weeks frost-free, a number of them would snap in,” said Hallick.
For Humphrey Banack, a Camrose, Alta., farmer and president of Wild Rose Agricultural Producers, good weather is needed so he can lose just $200,000.
Bad weather and a frost would take his present expectation of losing $50 per acre on his 4,500 acre farm and push it far into the red.
“I need another two and a half weeks,” said Banack, noting his canola is just finishing flowering. If it gets a chance to mature, the drought-ravaged crop could yield 15 to 20 bushels per acre.
Across central Alberta crops appear to have a 50 to 70 percent average yield potential, Banack said. That’s a worse situation than it sounds.
“The top part of the yield is the gravy,” Banack said.
“The expenses have been incurred already and that’s what the 50 to 70 percent covers. There’s going to be nothing left for the farmer.”
Banack, Stewart and Hallick all said they are optimistic and are cheered by weather forecasts that call for the weather to be relatively warm and dry for the next week or two.
“That’s all it’ll take,” said Stewart.
