Nobody has ever lost a crop in March, as farming optimists are fond of saying.
But in southern Alberta, where snow is absent, fire bans are on and some road bans are already off, there are mixed feelings about the crop prognosis.
Terrence Lazarus, general manager of the St. Mary River Irrigation District, acknowledges dry land farmers might be biting their nails over dry conditions but he doesn’t see similar worry on the horizon for those with irrigation.
“The snow pack is within a normal range and actually the snow pack generally … is above last year and our internal storage is healthy. We’re at 95 percent of normal, so I’m calling that normal for this time of year,” he said March 11.
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Irrigation districts typically draw down reservoir levels in fall to accommodate spring runoff. Lazarus said his district’s on-stream reservoirs have been filling and those upstream are also in good shape.
“I’m expecting there would have to be dramatic change in the snow pack for them not to fill, so its highly likely they will fill,” he said.
“Even if nothing changed, we’re OK in terms of snow pack, in terms of storage. And then of course there’s rains in June, and they always happen.”
The Alberta Environment and Parks water supply outlook forecasts below average runoff between March and September in the North Saskatchewan, Oldman, Bow, Red Deer and Milk River basins, with average runoff anticipated in the Bow at Banff and Calgary.
In terms of mountain snow pack, the provincial department reported a range from much below average to average in accumulations feeding the Oldman River basin. Those feeding the Bow River basin range from below average to much above average.
Snow pack conditions that feed the North Saskatchewan basin are much below average at Nordegg and average at Nigel Creek. For the Athabasca River basin, snow pack is much above to above average and in the Red Deer basin, it is much below average at Limestone Ridge but above average at Skoki Lodge.
A swath of Alberta from Rocky Mountain House southeast to Medicine Hat has received no precipitation so far in March and with the exception of the Rocky Mountains, the entire province has received less than 30 millimetres this month, according to Alberta Environment data.
However, Ralph Wright of the Agro-meteorological Applications and Modelling section of Alberta Agriculture and Forestry indicated that snow water deficits in the driest area of the province range between 50 and 60 mm.
“This is equivalent to a good soaking spring rain and can easily be made up with above average spring rains, and/or a few late winter snowstorms,” said Wright on the Agro Climatic Information Service website.
“There is still ample time to receive adequate moisture ahead of this year’s growing season and for most of Alberta, March and April are historically still relatively dry months.”
Historically, May, June and July are the months with the highest precipitation for Alberta.
Lazarus said above-average temperatures and low snowfall will likely cause farmers to pressure irrigation districts for earlier than usual water delivery.
Though that might be considered, the risk of freezing damage to valves and other mechanisms in the system can be high this early in the year.
“March can turn on a dime to be very cold,” he said.
barb.glen@producer.com
