Grain and oilseed producers in Saskatchewan’s northern grain belt are sitting on what could be an impressive crop this year.
But no one’s using the B word just yet.
Instead, they’re managing what they can and hoping Mother Nature manages the rest.
“Excellent,” says fourth generation producer Chris Bauer, describing crops near Lake Lenore, Sask., about 150 kilometres east of Saskatoon.
“We had ideal seeding conditions this spring, and the crops look very good. Crop-wise, I think everyone is really optimistic right now. Price and market-wise, it’s a different story.”
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Harvest is still a few weeks away, but there are already rumblings that the 2016-17 crop could be one of the largest Western Canada has ever seen.
Late last month, the Western Grain Elevators Association, which represents the country’s largest grain-handling companies, projected a western Canadian harvest of more than 68 million tonnes. That would be the second-largest harvest ever produced by prairie growers.
Evidence of a larger-than-normal crop is easy to come by in Saskatchewan’s north-central and northeastern growing regions.
Crops were in fantastic shape last week across a large area that spans Saskatoon in the south, Prince Albert in the north and most points east to the Manitoba border.
Excess moisture is a concern in some growing areas, especially in the northern half of Saskatchewan crop district 5B and east of Highway 35 toward the Manitoba border.
The forecast for much of the area this week is for as much as 90 millimetres of rain.
However, overall yield potential looks promising.
Last week, growers east of Saskatoon were going flat out on fungicide applications and were watching the forecast closely, hoping to avoid nasty weather events.
In the area around Lake Lenore, variable rainfall since June 25 had some growers hoping for rain and others with too much, said Bauer.
Generally, crops are in above-average condition and development is well ahead of normal.
“I’d say we’re about 10 days to two weeks ahead of normal,” Bauer said July 7.
“On our farm, we could be harvesting peas by mid-August, which is quite a bit earlier than usual.”
At Tisdale, Sask., about 200 kilometres northeast of Saskatoon, crops have never looked better after the first week of July, said pedigreed seed grower Kris Mayerle.
“So far, we’ve got just the right amount of rain at just the right time,” Mayerle said July 8.
“It looks as good as it’s ever looked at this time of year.”
“We’ve got a really good crop coming.… We’ve just got to get it to the bin now.”
Mayerle also hinted at a potentially early harvest. On his farm, fungicides are rarely applied before the July long weekend.
This year, an early start and near perfect growing conditions helped Mayerle treat 5,000 to 6,000 acres by the Canada Day weekend.
“I don’t know what normal is anymore, but I’d say we’re 10 days to two weeks earlier than we’ve been for the past four or five years at this time,” he said.
Crops are also showing great potential 90 minutes west of Tisdale, near Wakaw.
However, some growers expressed concerned that wet conditions and more rain in the forecast could hurt yield potential and crop quality.
Barley crops in particular are very heavy and some lodging was already evident as of July 10.
“It’s looking not too bad I guess, (but) I think with all the rain we’ve been getting, we’re going to start seeing a lot of disease pressure,” said Keith Gaudet, who farms in the Hoey-Bellevue area north of Wakaw.
“The fields are starting to get pretty saturated so there’s some concern about that,” he said July 8.
“Especially if the forecast is true for this coming week (July 10-16).”
The Western Producer took the pulse of crop conditions in eastern Saskatchewan late last week, just before heavy rain hit the area.
