Manitoba group wants to implement computerized modelling system to improve forecasting ability in the Assiniboine basin
Humans have found it difficult to predict flood and drought along the Assiniboine River, but a super computer might provide better results.
That’s what an array of Manitoba farm and rural environment groups are hoping.
They have put forth a proposal to use the same sort of system employed in Alberta to monitor and analyze the South Saskatchewan River.
“We think it would give us extra tools to predict what different weather events might do downstream … not only for flooding but drought too,” said Manitoba Forage and Grassland Association vice-chair Henry Nelson.
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“It considers a lot more data (than existing systems.) It takes into account the entire river basin. It acts as a unit. If you’ve got info from the entire river basin, then your predictions are much more accurate.”
The MFGA is seeking support from other farm and rural groups to implement the Aquanty computerized watershed modelling system. MFGA was approached by Agriculture Canada to become the proponent for the system, which would require Growing Forward 2 funding.
The Alberta Federation of Agriculture backs the Aquanty system used in Alberta. The system was born out of University of Waterloo research.
On June 23, the MFGA will ask for support from the Assiniboine River Basin Initiative.
ARBI chair Allan Preston said he likes the idea of a modelling system.
“It gives us a lot more information about what’s happening in a basin, and hopefully gives us more ability to make decisions down the road.”
The Red River’s situation is well understood, partly due to years of work by the Red River Basin Commission, but the Assiniboine is not. That was apparent in the 2011 and 2014 floods.
Preston said he hopes the Aquanty system will allow people along the Assiniboine to get the same level of knowledge and understanding as those along the Red.
“In many ways the Assiniboine basin is, I use the term, an orphan. It’s kind of been left off to the side,” said Preston. “There’s a lot of work … on the Red. There’s a lot of work on the South Saskatchewan. But on the Assiniboine basin, it’s kind of been left out of the picture.
“This will bring it into the mix and hopefully improve our data collection and our forecasting abilities.”
The Aquanty watershed system relies upon an immense amount of information, far beyond that offered by other systems, Nelson and Preston said.
It compiles information on surface water, soil moisture and groundwater to provide a comprehensive picture of a river system.
It could be an early warning system for floods or droughts and could also aid in flood mitigation systems in the watershed.
“We’re pretty excited about it,” said Preston.
Without the data collection and analysis provided by Aquanty, watershed managers have had to use their best available information to install structures and systems they hope will reduce negative water impacts.
Extreme events seem to occur more often now so flood and drought mitigation work must be increased.
“We have to figure out why these events are happening more frequently and with more severity now than they have in not only decades but in centuries past,” said Nelson.
“We’ve obviously done something on the landscape to alter the water action and impact.”
If it is approved, the Aquanty system is expected to collect enough data within three years to allow advanced watershed modeling and analysis.
Preston hopes it can reveal where farmers could benefit from moving land into hay and forage production.
“As we trace more and more of these flood events, it starts to make sense to have more permanent cover, more forage ground, that sort of thing, that can withstand temporary flooding, as opposed to trying to grow cereals and oilseeds on some of that land,” he said.
