India harvests its chickpea crop in 45 days. So far, crop prospects in
the world’s largest chickpea growing country look considerably better
than they did at the same time last year.
That should raise eyebrows for Canadian growers, said Pavan Talwar, the
man who gave the market outlook presentation at 2002 Pulse Days in
Saskatoon.
Canada still has a pile of desi chickpeas to sell that won’t shrink if
grower expectations for high prices continue to prevent sales during
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this narrow window of opportunity, said the American grain trader who
works for the Swiss company Pulses Etc.
“We are already seeing how rapidly the onset of the Australian harvest
has dropped prices to the Indian subcontinent,” he said.
“And the impending Indian harvest, looking excellent in terms of
quality and quantity, will drive values further south in the coming
season.”
The situation is worse for kabulis.
“The world has an overabundant supply of kabuli chickpeas this year,”
he said.
Kabuli prices will continue to be under pressure unless there are
significant crop failures in other producing nations.
Red lentil sales are another area of concern. Increased Canadian
production is in line with sales opportunities in the Indian
subcontinent, Turkey and Egypt, but Canadian price expectations are
once again too high.
Talwar said there is a window between August and January where the
Canadian red lentil is in demand, but this year the Turks bought
heavily from domestic supply and Australia, Canada’s main competitor,
stole the markets in the Middle East.
“We kept our prices high. The guys who took advantage were the
Australians. They cleaned out their stocks of old crop by underselling
us and then started out the new crop below where we were selling for
December.”
He said the 2001 crop could have easily been sold at decent values if
Canadian prices had been “a tad more realistic.”
Consumption of small green lentils has been static in Mexico and Europe
and it doesn’t look like Morocco will be a large buyer in the near
term, he said. Egypt and Pakistan will only buy small greens if they
are selling for a steep discount to red lentils.
Talwar said Canada seems to be overproducing this product and will not
be able to sell the entire crop unless prices drop another 15 percent
or so.
The prospect is much the same for large greens. Consumption is static
in Europe and South America and on the decline in Algeria. Turkey is
“overflowing with product.”
He forecasts declining demand and predicts that Canada will not be able
to sell all its green lentils without significant price reductions.
The outlook for green and yellow peas is slightly cheerier than what is
forecast for chickpeas and lentils, but Talwar warns prices will have
to drop if Canadian production increases too much.
He sees steady green pea demand from the usual importers, but that
could vanish if prices go too high.
Demand for yellow peas has been phenomenal this year due to a huge
shortfall in India’s desi chickpea crop. The Indians substituted
Canadian and French yellow peas for the missing desis. But unlike many
traders, Talwar doubts that Canada will be able to sell all its 2001
harvest without a significant price reduction. He warns farmers not to
seed too many peas in 2002.
“I believe if four million acres of peas go into the ground next year,
we will be in danger of being in an overproduced condition.”
He expects a one million tonne decrease in demand for Canadian feed
peas in the upcoming crop year, which will exceed the anticipated
decline in production by nearly 300,000 tonnes.
“Without a realistic approach to pricing for the new season, drought or
no drought, Canadian peas will not sell in the face of international
competition unless they are priced sensibly,” Talwar said.
