Pulse market traders and analysts delivered a bearish price forecast for two of the three pulses featured in the market outlook session Jan. 14 at Pulse Days 2009 in Saskatoon.
Greg Simpson, president of Simpson Seeds Inc., told growers to expect red and large green lentil prices to remain firm for January, February and March but to start dropping in April, May and June.
Prices for medium green lentils should remain firm for the rest of the 2008-09 crop year because of a lack of Canadian origin product, while lower bids are anticipated for small greens, especially in June and July.
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His outlook for new crop prices wasn’t much better.
“Everything being equal, prices should be expected to be lower into the 2009-10 crop year.”
Gerald Donkersgoed of Finora Canada and Brian Clancey, analyst with Stat Publishing, forecast new crop prices in the 15 to 20 cents per pound range for reds and the same top-end for large greens.
Carsten Bredin, assistant vice-president for eastern grains and peas with Richardson International Ltd., projected that a 941,000 tonne pea carryout would push yellow pea prices close to the $5 per bushel range by the end of the crop year.
“If you see $6 you should probably sell it,” he told growers.
Greg Kostal, analyst with Kostal Ag Consulting, didn’t dispute those numbers. He said $6 to $6.50 per bu. should define the upper end for yellow peas. Kostal expects a $1 per bu. premium for green peas in 2009-10.
The chickpea outlook was slightly more encouraging but far from bullish.
“By and large it’s going to be steady as she goes,” said Peter Wilson, global supply chain manager with JK International Ltd.
Marlene Boersch, managing partner in Mercantile Venture Inc., also expects similar chickpea prices to what have been around the past two or three months.
There was no bean outlook at this year’s conference.
