Sporadic monsoon rains have the world’s largest pulse producer off to a jittery start with its fall crop.
India’s ministry of agriculture said cumulative rainfall for the period between June 1 and July 21, a critical period of the monsoon season, was 12.3 percent below normal.
It is particularly dry in the prime pulse-producing region in the northwest, where rainfall is 19.7 percent behind average. Weather officials were predicting “no spectacular improvement” for the remainder of July.
A soil moisture map prepared by the United States Department of Agriculture confirms dismal growing conditions in the northwest, harkening back to 2002 when the country suffered a crop disaster.
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Kharif crops account for 48 percent of India’s total annual pulse acreage and 37 percent of its production.
India’s agriculture secretary Radha Singh said as of mid-July kharif pulse plantings were 3.5 million acres behind last year’s pace. That means less output from a country that produces one-quarter of the world’s pulses.
In a July 18 speech delivered at the National Conference on Pulses 2004, Singh was quoted in the Hindu Business Line as saying while it is too early to affix a definitive number, a decline in production is “for sure.”
That contradicts a June report by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization calling for a 30 percent increase in Indian pulse production in 2004 given normal monsoon rains.
Dave Walker, general manager of Walker Seeds Ltd., said news of a smaller Indian crop is exciting but needs to be put into perspective.
If the reports prove true, buyers in the Indian subcontinent could be obtaining 500,000 to 600,000 tonnes of Canadian peas this fall, a return to trade levels of a few years ago.
Exports dipped to about half that amount last year because of a poor pulse harvest in Canada, a good crop in India and strong competition from cheaper product out of France.
So if all goes well, Canadian exporters could be selling an extra 300,000 tonnes of pulses to India this year.
Walker said that will do little to help move what could be a million tonne increase in pea production. He is forecasting a Canadian crop as big as 3.5 million tonnes, up from 2.1 million tonnes in 2003.
The lentil harvest should also be impressive considering seeded acreage was up 37 percent this year.
“The fact that India is going to come in and increase their demand potential is not going to offset the fact that prices are going to have to go lower here in order to see that crop move,” he said.
India has also instituted new fumigation rules that could disrupt Canadian exports to that country.
Canadian growers should brace for an edible pea price below $4 per bushel, while offshore values would suggest a feed pea price of around $3.60 per bu. come fall, said Walker.
Tisdale, Sask., pulse crop grower Neil Anderson finds it is hard to argue with those predictions, having already received a quote of $3.80 per bu. for yellow edible peas directly off the combine.
“I have to get 40 to 50 bushels at least to make money off of those.”
Fortunately, the prairie pea crop looks like it will deliver those yields, barring weather or pest-related disasters.
Anderson is relieved he seeded marrowfat peas this year because the niche crop should deliver enough of a price premium to give him a good return. Others who contracted feed peas this spring at $5 per bu. will also make out OK.
But for those growing a crop like edible yellow peas, the concern has to be how low the price will drop, said Anderson.
