John Lister had good news and bad for those attending the Canadian Wheat Board conference on organic farming.
“The good news is that the demand for organic products in the United Kingdom is growing at 40 percent per annum,” said the miller from England. “The bad news is that the acreage under organic agriculture is increasing at an average of only 25 percent per annum.”
And of the total acreage, only about 19 percent is suitable for growing wheat, he said.
Industry players from North America presented similar figures.
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Lynn Myers, executive vice-president of
ConAgra Flour Milling in Omaha, Nebraska, said about 1.5 million acres were certified organic in the United States in 1997, up considerably from previous years.
But only 20 percent of that is grain land and 30 percent is for fruits and vegetables, leaving half as grassland.
Myers said the market is growing at about 25 percent per year, but acreage is rising by 20 percent.
“We have a gap,” he said. “We have the same issue as England.”
The Canadian Wheat Board has pegged the average annual growth rate of organic grain sales at about 36 percent over the last 10 years.
Adrian Measner, executive vice-president of marketing for the board, said it is not easy to track the supply and demand of organic grain because there is little data available. He suggested Western Canada has experienced an increase in organic acreage similar to the U.K.
There is no doubt about increasing demand, however, as the board’s conventional grain customers are now asking for organic product, he said.
“There have been inquiries from around the globe about organic grains, particularly from Europe, Japan and North America,” he said.
“Most customers want assurance that we can supply a consistent, quality product on a regular basis because they want to develop an organic product line.”
Derek Brewin, a researcher at the University of Saskatchewan, said Western Canada will be able to meet the demand if buyers are willing to pay farmers enough of a premium to switch farming methods.
There were 836 growers registered through several organizations in the three prairie provinces this year. That number is growing by about 25 percent annually.
Over-supply is not likely, because organic grain can always be sold into the conventional market, Brewin said.
“Based on current research it will take premiums of three times conventional prices to pull significant acreage out of conventional farming in the dark brown soil zone,” he said. “It will only take doubling to attract acres from the black soil zone and keep most of the current organic operations viable.”
In England, Lister said imports of high quality organic wheat should remain strong, with Canada leading the way. Continued growth in the U.K. will focus on oats, barley, rye, root vegetables like potatoes and carrots, and livestock.
