AccuWeather’s fall forecast contains more bad news for Manitoba farmers who have been battling excess moisture all year.
“We have unusually warm water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean west of British Columbia,” said senior meteorologist Jack Boston.
That favours the establishment of a high pressure ridge over the Rocky Mountains.
“On the eastern side of the ridge you’re going to have a northerly jet stream, which is going to act to pull colder air south. That is going to affect mainly Manitoba,” Boston said.
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“Below normal temperatures will be accompanied by above normal rainfall.”
It is unwelcome news for a province that has already received 115 to 200 percent of normal precipitation since April 1 in most regions.
AccuWeather is forecasting an “extraordinarily nice fall” for western Alberta due to its proximity to the high pressure system.
The region should experience above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation during the September through November period.
Conditions are expected to deteriorate the further east one goes.
Eastern Alberta and Saskatchewan should experience near normal fall rainfall and temperatures, but then it turns ugly.
“Unfortunately, I think that Arctic air masses are going to plow down into Central Canada. You’ll probably get clipped by them in Saskatchewan but not a direct hit like Manitoba will get,” said Boston.
The first fall frost is expected to arrive earlier than normal in Manitoba, around the usual time in Saskatchewan and eastern Alberta and later than normal in western Alberta.
The early outlook for winter is not much better than the fall forecast, especially for Manitoba.
“It is going to be a pretty severe winter,” said Boston. “Our preliminary indications are that it’s going to be a very cold winter, especially across Central Canada this year.”
