Even as most weather forecasters predict the weather upheaval of the century bearing down on Canada’s major farming regions, most farmers are doing little in the way of serious preparation.
But many producers in drought-prone areas say they are better equipped to combat this El Nino than they were during the 1980s when weather calamities struck.
“This will be the international weather event of the century,” said Brian Fehr, of Environment Canada’s Winnipeg office.
Fehr and other forecasters the world over, predict the El Nino now staging in the Pacific Ocean could bring the warmest and driest winter yet to the Prairies. It’s expected to bring even more drastic changes than the one in 1982-83, the most extreme El Nino recorded so far this century.
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But nobody is panicking, and many say the moisture-saving, low-tillage techniques that have swept Western Canada in the past decade will shield farmers from the worst of El Nino’s fury.
“I like to think we are better prepared than ever before for a drought. Minimizing our tillage is paying off moisture-wise and in the case of severe drought, it should be the difference between having a crop and not having one,” said John Bennett, a Biggar, Sask., area farmer.
Doug McKell, of the Saskatchewan Soil Conservation Association, cited an area just east of Regina as an example of how farmers are better equipped for combat this year.
“This past year was the driest on record for Indian Head other than ’61 and ’67 when we didn’t get a crop. Farmers in the area had decent crops and the less tillage they did, the better their yields were.
“The impact to farmers may be far less than some of the other El Nino years as farmers move towards moisture conservation as part of their operations.”
Previous El Ninos have shifted prairie winter jet stream patterns to the south-southwest, increasing temperatures an average of 5.7 degrees in Alberta, 5.1 degrees in Saskatchewan and 3.7 degrees in Manitoba.
Along with the warm temperatures, precipitation usually takes a nosedive. Areas already strapped for moisture will likely be further challenged. During past El Nino years, southern Alberta received an average of 43 percent of normal rainfall.
In southern Saskatchewan, 72 percent of normal rainfall on average has occurred in past El Nino years. Southern Manitoba fared better, with an increase in precipitation to 105 percent of normal occurring.
El Nino is caused when east-to-west trade winds diminish for unknown reasons and that allows a bulge of warm water in the Pacific Ocean, normally held back near Indonesia, to slosh toward South America. In the process heat and moisture are transferred to the upper atmosphere, which disrupts worldwide weather patterns.
Flooding expected
In the tropical climates where El Nino originates, officials have flood plans in place. The U.S. Pacific ports and coast guard expect tropical storms that usually pass far out to sea, will hit the coast this winter.
Forecasters point out that climactic changes in past El Nino years are only a guide, but the warm ocean temperatures in the Pacific this year are higher and extend farther north than ever before. The impact, they say, will not be completely known until it hits.
But in southern Alberta, they’re not waiting.
Prepare for drought
The irrigation authority in the water management area of Brooks has extended the season in anticipation of drier conditions to come. Many producers are taking advantage of the opportunity and performing fall irrigation, said Gordon Frank, of Alberta Agriculture in Brooks.
“It’s one of the main coffee-row conversations right now. Mainly because we know it is coming but no one can tell us exactly what will happen. It is a good time to take steps to conserve moisture and reduce tillage operations. If it doesn’t happen it can’t hurt and if it does it may be the difference, for dryland farmers, between having a viable crop and not,” said Frank.
“We’ve been recommending producers leave stubble longer as a soil trap, get banding and other operations out of the way this fall so they can get into the seeding as early as possible next spring, fall irrigation, direct seeding and even fall seeding for those crops that can use it.”
“It’s a season to plan for bankers’ inputs. Conservative decision making can almost always be changed up to the last minute. When you are dealing with the weather changes and farming, sometimes you just have to wait and see,” said Bennett.
