There’s not much lentil brokers and traders agree on this time of year but one thing is certain, the 2003 harvest is one of the best looking crops ever grown.
“I have never seen lentils with that much brilliance in colour. It’s like they’re neon,” said Saskatoon commodity broker Larry Weber.
Scott Cunningham, marketing manager for Saskcan Pulse Trading Inc., one of the largest lentil buyers in Western Canada, agrees the quality looks excellent.
Ray McVicar, special crops specialist with Saskatchewan Agriculture, also confirms reports of a spectacular lentil crop.
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“In many cases I have heard growers say that they think they’re the nicest looking lentils they’ve ever grown,” he said.
So everybody agrees this year’s crop is a pretty one, but that’s where the harmony ends. When it comes to supply and demand factors, there is the usual cacophony of conflicting reports.
Agriculture Canada and Saskatchewan Agriculture have pegged the lentil crop between 540,000 and 550,000 tonnes, using an average yield of 917 pounds per acre.
“There is no way that we’re going to be that high,” said Weber.
He said all indications are that later seeded fields took the brunt of the August heat and will come in around 800 lb. per acre, which will shave 70,000 tonnes off the government estimates.
That could mean higher prices down the road, but Weber said farmers shouldn’t get too greedy, especially if they had above-average yields. A grower whose large green lentils went 1,500 lb. per acre could see returns of $315 per acre at Sept. 22 prices.
“Lentils are pencilling out to be your best crop,” he said.
McVicar said Weber could be right about late season crop damage, but he doesn’t think yields will drop as low as the broker is predicting.
During the last two years of severe drought, lentils yielded 759Ð817 lb. per acre.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if we’re up a bit from that,” said McVicar.
Production and demand
Cunningham said there will be all kinds of debate about the size of the crop in the coming weeks until Statistics Canada issues its November crop production report.
“People always get hung up on yields,” he said.
And they forget about demand.
Cunningham said Europe is sitting on a surprisingly large amount of low quality Laird lentils that it purchased last year. Lentil markets won’t see a return to normal demand until late November or early December when Europe has worked its way through that supply.
“The pent-up demand that everybody thought was going to be there isn’t there,” said Cunningham.
The lack of interested buyers will drive down prices for No. 1 Lairds from the current 20 cents per lb. to 17-18 cents, said Cunningham.
It’s a similar story for other classes of the crop. Buyers are not having “a whole lot of trouble” finding red lentils and there seems to be an overabundance of Estons and French greens as well.
And even though the quality of this year’s crop is fantastic, that doesn’t mean equally good prices, said Cunningham. There are only a few canners in Italy and Spain that insist on top quality lentils. Others will make do with cheaper No. 2 crop.
McVicar said it will be hard to discern the difference between the top two grades of large green lentils this year because the quality is so outstanding.