A hot August has alleviated but certainly not eliminated concerns about frost damage to a late-developing prairie crop.
“We’ve had really good heat units in the last three weeks and for the most part have gained as much as a week in maturity,” said Rob Park, manager of Manitoba Agriculture’s industry focus section.
He estimated the crop is now a week behind normal development instead of two weeks, which provides more breathing room from a frost that usually arrives around Sept. 15.
“If we do have a frost that comes normal this year, there will be some acres caught,” said Park.
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The major concern in Manitoba is for longer-season crops like corn, sunflower, soybean, edible beans and late-seeded canola. A frost would cause reduced bushel weights and lead to immature seed problems with those crops.
Doon Pauly has witnessed more horrible harvests than good ones since Alberta Agriculture opened its Ag-Info Centre in 2002. The crop specialist worries this year could be another wreck due to the lateness of the crop.
“If it stays cool, we’re going to have a very prolonged harvest and what was looking like a pretty good payday could easily become a big strain,” he said.
Today’s conditions remind him of 2005, when a late crop suffered through a wet harvest, turning virtually all the wheat in the province into feed worth a measly $1 per bushel.
“This year was sure shaping up to be very reminiscent of that until we got this last bit of heat that we had. That has really brought (the crop) on and has given us a fighting chance to get this crop off in reasonable condition,” said Pauly Aug. 21.
Saskatchewan is usually hit with minus temperatures sometime between the end of August and mid-September. Grant McLean, cropping management specialist with Saskatchewan Agriculture’s Ag Knowledge Centre, remembers a nasty August frost four years ago.
“It was devastating because we were expecting a very good crop.”
Producers he has spoken with fear an early season frost, especially for a high-value crop like canola that will be harvested later than usual because of a poor start and uneven germination.
“They are rightly nervous until they can get this thing in the bin because there’s a lot at stake out there,” said McLean.
Ron Hanmer, a farmer from Govan, Sask., is one of those producers watching the calendar.
As of Aug. 22, he had just finished harvesting what turned out to be a huge winter wheat crop and had about one-third of his canola sitting in swath. The first frost in his area usually hits around Sept. 12. He estimated his crops are a week to 10 days behind normal development.
“It’s not as critical as it was in 2004 when it froze so hard because our crop is advanced quite a bit more than that. But it would still be a huge impact.”
Hanmer is particularly concerned about his canola, durum and AC Andrew wheat crops. He doesn’t want to see any downgrading when prices are attractive and the crops look good.
“There’s not much money in feed, especially with the cattle industry where it is. That’s the last thing you want is something to slip into the feed market.”
Bob Cormier, weather forecaster with Environment Canada, said there is no big frost threat for the prairie region for this week and next.
“We don’t see a situation that would lend itself to any kind of a widespread frost anywhere,” he said.
Nighttime temperatures will likely drop to the 3 to 6 C range this week and a few degrees warmer than that next week. There could be pockets that drop as low as freezing but he doesn’t see -3 to -4 C killing frosts in the near term.
Pauly said growers have poured so many inputs into this year’s crops that a frost or wet harvest would be heart-breaking.
Some of Alberta’s canola crop is still “grass green” and could be hit by a frost that generally occurs somewhere between Sept. 5 and Sept. 12.
A farmer could easily see a No. 1 or No. 2 canola crop turn into No. 3 or sample overnight.
“You suddenly go from $12 per bu. to $5 per bu.,” he said.
That would be devastating for growers, especially those who bought their fertilizer in the spring when prices were on the rise. A canola producer could easily have $10 to $12 per acre of production costs invested in their fields.
“It is pretty critical that the crop finishes without frost or else there is potential for severe economic strain,” said Pauly.
Park said if the first killing frost is pushed back past Sept. 20, damage will be minimal in Manitoba.
“In recent years we’ve been having a really open fall. That’s all we need,” he said.
