WINNIPEG – A farmer’s canola choice used to be simple – Argentine or Polish.
But the debate over genetically modified organisms has made the choices more confusing and has resulted in a lower than normal demand for canola seed this fall.
“I can understand why farmers haven’t been rushing out to order their seed yet,” said Craig Evans, Monsanto Canada’s general manager for biotechnology.
“Many are confused by all the talk about the future of (GMO) canola and other varieties with novel traits.”
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Evans said the late fall has had an impact on farmer decisions, but the controversy over the future of GM canola and the question about whether there will be a market for it is also a factor.
Wayne Bacon, a Kinistino, Sask., grain farmer and president of the Saskatchewan Canola Growers Association, said he is not surprised that farmers haven’t rushed out to buy seed. Low commodity prices, uncertain government aid programs, a late harvest and depressed futures markets have caused producers to take a longer look at what has in the past been dubbed the Cinderella crop.
Steve Meister, of AgrEvo Canada, agreed. He said the demand for seed is down due to the public debate over genetics, the economics of the crop and the fact that many producers are still trying to decide how to keep their farms operating, “let alone what to grow next year.”
Meister said it is unlikely segregation will play any role in the price or marketability of canola this year or next.
“Most of the crushers are set up for high throughput of large volumes of canola,” he said.
“The customers in the major markets are not demanding labeling of the product. The farmer should decide for himself whether the crop would make him money. If so, it then comes to the decision about what kind of canola to grow. In that way, it is the same this year as it always has been.”
Seventy percent of canola grown in Western Canada in 1999 was herbicide tolerant, but Terry Scott, of Brett Young Seeds’ LiBred canola division, feels that amount will drop significantly next spring.
“I have had some seed dealers tell me they think it (herbicide-tolerant) may be as little as 50 percent of the seeded acres this year. I am sure that it won’t increase this year, but farmers are taking their time to decide what they are going to do and who can blame them?”
His company is predicting a two percent increase in total canola acres next year for the Prairies.
“I can see that producers will still want it in their rotations and this year it may be time for them to decide whether their soil and weather conditions merit the expense of a new hybrid variety or whether they should grow an open pollinated conventional variety at a lower cost,” he said.
“It won’t be the same for each farmer and I expect they will take a little longer to make up their minds this year.”
Bacon said the number of canola acres will probably be down this year.
“I see 11, 12, maybe 13 million acres,” he said. This year farmers harvested 13.7 million acres.
“But there is no reason to switch from GMOs or novel traits just yet. If a herbicide-tolerant variety is going to make you some money this year, then grow it. The market isn’t looking for open pollinated conventional varieties yet and there are no premiums to grow them.”
Bacon said many growers will switch to other oilseeds in their rotation to give the crop a rest while prices are low.
Farmers’ choices will increase next year as new novel trait, herbicide-resistant varieties hit the market in February after registration approvals. As well, seed stocks of varieties that were released last year have been increased.
“I expect there will be a run on some of the new hybrids and herbicide-tolerant canolas late this fall and early spring,” Evans said.
“There is some great new germplasm out there and I expect that for farmers that feel they can make money on their canola, they will want to grow as many bushels as they can.”
Brent McCarthy, of SeCan’s marketing department, said he hasn’t heard of any seed variety shortages in canola this year, but thinks supplies of some new varieties may get tight in the spring.
All of those interviewed said winter weather, opportunities for fall weed control and seedbed preparation, and price signals from the commodity markets will be factored into planting intentions this year.
“The earlier the farmer decides, the better his chance of getting exactly he wants,” said Evans.
