Statistics Canada estimates there are a staggering 22,100 fewer farmers on the Prairies this fall than there were last fall.
It’s a jaw-dropping number that has befuddled many agricultural economists.
“That’s an error. That’s too big a change to be a real change,” said University of Saskatchewan economist Rose Olfert, an expert on rural trends.
“If indeed it is telling us what the numbers suggest, that is a very large decrease.”
Even analysts in Agriculture Canada dispute the findings of their sister department.
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But Vincent Ferrao, senior analyst with the Labor Force Survey, insists there is nothing wrong with the numbers.
He doesn’t think the figures should be that hard to swallow because everybody knows the industry has been going through tough times.
“Employment is weak in agriculture and it’s not something new. It’s something that has been going on for some time,” he said.
“That’s what the survey has been picking up for over two years now. It was quite stable for a period before that.”
The number looks even worse when hired hands and unpaid family workers are included – a total decline of 26,200 employees in one year. But the number isn’t as important as the trend, said Ferrao.
A look at the month-by-month statistics since January 1997 shows total employment in agriculture has plummeted since the fall of 1998.
Agricultural employment on the Prairies used to hover around the 200,000 mark. August’s survey puts that number under 160,000.
University of Manitoba agriculture economist Daryl Kraft said the numbers caught him with his “mouth wide open.” He said this could be a quantifiable symptom of the much-talked about farm income crisis.
He could only speculate what the numbers mean. Maybe a lack of income is forcing farmers to amalgamate or sell to their neighbors.
Olfert came up with a few explanations for the dramatic decline off the top of her head.
She said one possible cause for the decline could be a shift in how farmers think about off-farm employment.
“The better the income from the off-farm job relative to the farm income, the more likely you’re going to identify the off-farm job as your primary source of income or employment.”
But Ferrao said the survey doesn’t categorize people based on income, but by hours worked in an occupation.
Olfert also suggested if the numbers are accurate, it could show the impact of the loss of the Crow Benefit transportation subsidy on farm employment.
But then the decline in Alberta wouldn’t be as dramatic as in Saskatchewan and Manitoba because farmers in those two provinces have to ship grain farther to port.
However, the survey suggests Alberta experienced the largest decline of farmers in terms of quantity and percentage during the one-year period between this August and last August. The province lost an estimated 11,200 self-employed people in the field of agriculture, which is a 19 percent drop from 1999 levels.
Saskatchewan lost 6,400 farmers, a 12 percent decline and Manitoba is reporting 4,500 fewer farmers, a 16 percent drop.
Agriculture is losing employees at a much faster rate than other prairie industries. While most businesses are experiencing positive growth, agriculture has lost nearly 10 percent of its workforce in the past year.
