Crops in the western half of the prairie region are behind normal development, according to a new Agriculture Canada map based on growing degree days.
Fields in Manitoba and eastern Saskatchewan were rated either normal or better than average as of Aug. 8.
But crops in the western half of Saskatchewan and almost all of Alberta were anywhere from three to 12 days behind normal development, with Alberta’s crops being the furthest delayed.
“Being that far behind is not a good thing if we’re going to have a normal first frost freeze date and that is the expectation,” said Drew Lerner, president of World Weather Inc.
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It is exceedingly difficult to predict frost dates but Lerner’s best guess based on his weather models is a normal to slightly earlier than normal frost, probably arriving between Sept. 5 and Sept. 20 depending on the region.
If his forecast proves accurate, the cool weather could inflict damage on some of the best looking crops in the prairie region. Satellite maps indicate much higher than normal vegetative growth in the western portion of the Prairies where the crops are furthest delayed and most susceptible to frost.
“I’m sure there will be a quality issue if there is a frost or freeze in the time period I’m looking for,” said Lerner.
Mark Cutts, crop specialist with Alberta Agriculture, said the growing degree day map is pretty much bang-on based on his observations and conversations with farmers.
“Everything is somewhat behind and then there are some crops that are certainly more behind than others,” he said.
“I would think that six day (behind normal development) number is probably pretty accurate.”
The revelation that the western side of his province is so far behind puzzles Grant McLean, who produces Saskatchewan Agriculture’s crop report.
“That surprises me because what I’m hearing from producers is it’s the east-central region that is still behind normal,” he said in an Aug. 11 interview.
“Maybe my perspective is being warped because we’ve really been blessed here in Moose Jaw. Harvest of early-seeded lentils has been going for a week now.”
John Ippolito, a regional crop specialist with Saskatchewan Agriculture based out of Kindersley, Sask., said the Agriculture Canada map is based on growing degree days but doesn’t take late seeding into account.
“The crop development may not totally coincide with what this map is showing because we may have some growing degree day accumulation during early May even though the crop wasn’t planted,” he said.
That could explain why the eastern portion of the province shows up as normal on the map but behind normal in conversations with farmers.
Ippolito said the map does a good job of reflecting conditions in his neck of the woods in the west-central portion of the province, where the crop is indeed slightly behind.
But he isn’t too concerned about frost damage if it arrives during the usual Sept. 9 to 15 period.
“I wouldn’t expect to see a lot of trouble with a frost a month from now,” he said.
McLean concurs.
“I think the majority of the crop is still going to be OK. Maybe I’m just being optimistic,” he said.
Cutts said Alberta farmers need more warm days like they received last week to push along what some say is shaping up to be a bumper crop in the province.
“There’s nothing even remotely close to being harvested out here,” he said during an Aug. 10 interview.
Crop maturity is a mixed bag right across the province due to spring seeding delays. There are numerous instances of canola fields that are past the flowering stage growing adjacent to a field in full bloom.
Growers are particularly concerned about frost damage to their high-value canola crops. Normal first fall frost for Alberta ranges from around Sept. 10 in the Peace country to Sept. 25 in the south.
Cutts said farmers are praying for hot weather for the remainder of the growing season.
“We probably need all of this month and probably the first 10 days to two weeks of September to get a lot of guys over the hump,” he said.
“The crop that people have got is a nice looking crop. It just needs some time to finish. Hopefully we get that opportunity.”
Lerner said that might not be in the cards. He is forecasting a wave of cool air descending on the Prairies toward the end of August followed by another wave somewhere around mid-September that will bring with it the first killing frost.
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