The chance of a soaking rain falling on the western portion of the Prairies is diminishing with every day that ticks by.
A meteorologist with Environment Canada said if farmers haven’t seen a prolonged downpour by June 15, they likely won’t get one all summer.
“What happens for the remainder of the month and the first part of June is very critical,” said Bob Cormier.
The lack of precipitation in Alberta and portions of Saskatchewan this year can be blamed on weather systems rather than phenomena like El Ni–o and La Ni–a.
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Most of the weather systems affecting the western prairies in the past five months have originated in the Pacific Ocean and moved rapidly west, dumping the majority of their moisture before the Rocky Mountain range.
“Those systems are not the real precipitation givers,” said Cormier.
Even if they did contain moisture, they move so fast that it would be a brief rain.
What farmers need is an extremely slow moving system originating in the weak flows of the Alberta foothills that creeps in a southeasterly pattern across the Prairies.
These systems tend to tap into moisture from the United States and can deliver soaking rains that drift slowly across Alberta and southern Saskatchewan.
“The trouble is that we haven’t seen one of those systems in a dog’s age,” said Cormier.
“If you don’t pick them up by the middle of June or so, then the probability of having that particular pattern develop kind of drops off fairly quickly.”
The lack of these slow moving systems has created a situation where much of Alberta, a large portion of central Saskatchewan and a strip along southwestern Saskatchewan is bone dry.
Those areas have experienced only 40 to 60 percent of average precipitation levels. In a few spots it is drier than ever recorded. Many dugouts are either empty or one-quarter full and grass growth on pastures is poor.
For Manitoba and southeastern Saskatchewan, it’s the opposite side of the coin. Precipitation levels range from average to well above average. Dugouts are full and pasture land is rated good or excellent in large portions of that region. In some areas it’s too wet.
Cormier said that’s because Manitoba’s weather is influenced by Colorado systems that have been drawing moisture all the way from the Gulf of Mexico and dumping it on their path from the eastern portion of North and South Dakota through northwestern Ontario.
The only effect those systems have on western Saskatchewan and Alberta is to create strong winds.
If the western Prairies don’t get one of those slow moving systems originating out of the Alberta foothills in the next few weeks, then farmers will have to rely on summer showers and thunderstorms for moisture, Cormier said.
With a soaking rain, the cloud cover usually sticks around for a day or two, limiting the amount of evaporation. That’s not the case for showers and thunderstorms.
“You might get a half decent spill but if the sun comes out and there’s a big wind right afterward, well then you lose a lot to evaporation.”
Cormier wishes he had a cheerier message, but he encourages farmers not to despair. While things look grim, the outlook is not hopeless.
“There have been times where the winter and the spring have been fairly dry and the good shots of moisture have moved in during the month of June.”
