More canola, more cereals and fewer pulse crops are likely to be planted in Alberta this year, the provincial agriculture department predicts.
Mark Cutts, crop specialist with Alberta Agriculture, said reports indicate barley acres will increase by seven percent, durum by five percent, spring wheat by four and oats by about two percent.
“Cereal crops, canola acres look to be higher while the pulse acres look to be the crop type that will see lower acreage for 2018,” said Cutts.
“Probably not a surprise to most that canola is also expected to see an increase in acres seeded for 2018. The value of this crop continues to make it a preferred choice by producers. Also because of export demand continuing to be high, we have lots of this crop being grown but we also have a good demand for the crop, so as a result, we will see an increase in acres for 2018 as compared to 2017.”
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Canola pencils out best for producers at this point, said Alberta Agriculture farm management specialist Dean Dyck.
He used AgriProfit$ data to calculate gross crop income minus direct expenses.
“Canola is the only crop that will give a positive gross margin.… However, it’s tight. If you have a 10 percent drop in either price or yield, there won’t be a coverage for direct expenses,” said Dyck.
As for other crops, figures indicate positive margins for all other major crops when direct expenses are measured against expected prices. When capital expenses are factored in, canola is the only crop that shows a positive.
Cutts said acres planted to peas are projected to be down by 20 percent and lentils will see an even larger reduction with 25 percent fewer acres expected to be planted this season.
He added that most people realize the value of having a pulse crop in the rotation, so that may be a factor when final planting decisions are made.
Flax acres in the province are expected to be flat to lower and soybeans, as a minor crop in the province, have been steadily increasing in acres but the amount planted remains low.
In an April 19 webinar, Cutts reminded growers of the various management tools at their disposal, accessed through the Alberta Agriculture website. Those include insect forecast and survey maps, the grains, forage and straw nutrient use calculator, the barley seeding rate calculator, the fusarium head blight infection risk report and the blue book of information on pesticides and seed treatments.
As for cash rental rates on cropland, Dyck said they are expected to be stable to higher for the coming growing season.
With canola at around $11 per bushel and barley prices rising, he said it is affecting land rental rates, which are anecdotally in the $80 to $100 per acre range and higher in some areas.
“I guess the question that we pose is does this make economic sense,” he said. “That’s a demand-driven thing and the demand for land rental is starting to go up.”
His calculations indicate fairly good yields will be needed to justify an $80 per acre rental rate when direct expenses are factored in. Even better yields are needed to cover the $100 per acre rate.
Alberta Agriculture has a cash rental calculator on its website that can help with decision-making, said Dyck.
He said he is often asked about the outlook for hay prices but they are difficult to predict. This year, there are adequate supplies in northern Alberta but the south has seen a shortage that has increased prices.
