StatsCan forecast questioned | More planted acres than first projected are said to be main reason for estimate disparity
Canaryseed isn’t as hard to come by as Statistics Canada suggests, says a processor of the crop.
“There is sufficient supply,” Elyce Simpson of Simpson Seeds Inc. told the canaryseed portion of Crop Production Week 2014.
“It is not in a shortage as originally thought.”
Statistics Canada was forecasting 75,000 tonnes of production last summer, but it has since bumped up its estimate to 119,000 tonnes.
Simpson said that is still too low. She believes growers harvested 138,500 tonnes of the birdseed, based on conversations she has had with Saskatchewan farmer customers in Swift Current, Rosetown, Kyle and southern corners of the province.
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“We’re thinking there is a little bit more crop out there than what they are saying there is,” said Simpson in an interview following her presentation.
“We felt pretty comfortable bumping it up a little bit based on some of our discussions.”
She said one of the main reasons for the disparity is that growers planted 245,000 acres of the crop rather than the 200,000 acres that Statistics Canada estimated.
Prices were as high as 28 cents per pound early in 2013.
“That did persuade a few more acres to go in,” said Simpson.
She thinks yields averaged 1,200 to 1,300 pounds per acre compared to Statistics Canada’s estimate of 1,100 lb.
Simpson believes total supply is 153,500 tonnes compared to Agriculture Canada’s estimate of 141,000 tonnes.
She is forecasting 23,700 tonnes of carryout, which is not nearly as tight as Agriculture Canada’s 5,000 tonne estimate.
Canaryseed prices have drifted down to 21 to 22 cents per lb., which she blamed on the better than anticipated Canadian output, a recovery in U.S. millet production and generally slumping agricultural commodity markets.
However, the price decline hasn’t been as drastic as it has been with other crops, a trend that Simpson sees continuing.
“I don’t anticipate (canaryseed prices) to go too much lower, and I think the pressure on other crops will continue,” she said.
It is why she expects acreage to increase this year.
Canaryseed exports have been strong, with 59,662 tonnes shipped through November. It is a 58 percent improvement over the same four-month period a year ago despite having a smaller crop to ship.
Mexico is still the biggest buyer despite continuing frustrations shipping into that market. Any shipment containing 15 or more quarantine weed seeds per kilogram will be rejected with the shipper absorbing all the costs.
“This seems to be the bottom line. As far as we can tell, there is really not going to be any more movement on the side of Mexico,” said Simpson.
Exporters have no recourse in terms of having the shipment re-sampled or re-graded.
“Once it is rejected, it is rejected. There is no way an exporter can challenge the result,” said Simpson.
It has prompted some Canadian processors to permanently leave the Mexican market because the business risk is too great.
