In the red trunks, weighing in at 18.5 million tonnes, back from a technical knockout in 2002, the pride of Western Canada – Wally the Walloping Wheat Crop.
In the blue trunks, topping the scales at 24.1 million tonnes, also on the comeback trail, the Thunder from Down Under – Bruce the Bruising Bushel Buster.
After last year’s crop disasters, Canada and Australia will once again be duking it out in export markets in 2003-04 thanks to vastly improved crops.
According to the latest federal government estimate, Western Canada will harvest 42.8 million tonnes of its major grains, oilseeds and pulses, up 51 percent from last year’s drought ravaged totals.
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That includes a much improved but below average 18.5 million tonne wheat crop.
Australia’s rebound is more impressive. The government’s official forecaster, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, has pegged the total crop at 37.1 million tonnes, up 139 percent from 2002.
“Widespread rains throughout most of the Australian grain belt during late July and August have significantly improved prospects for this year’s winter grain crops,” said ABARE executive director Brian Fisher.
Wheat led the recovery with a crop that is expected to produce 24.1 million tonnes, up from 9.4 million tonnes a year ago.
Canadian Wheat Board analyst Dwayne Lee said that would rival the record 24.8 million tonnes harvested in 2001-02 and is 4.3 million tonnes higher than the five-year average.
“That’s a good-sized crop for them,” he said.
Australia is traditionally one of the world’s top five wheat exporters. It regularly competes with Canada in a variety of markets.
But last year the country’s exports dwindled to 8.5 million tonnes, down substantially from the five-year average of 15 million tonnes.
“They more or less cut back most places,” said Lee.
Australia should be back on the world stage in a big way this year. The United States Department of Agriculture expects a 2003-04 wheat export program of about 16.5 million tonnes from down under.
Minor exporters such as India, China and countries that used to be part of the Soviet Union “really stepped up to the plate” last year. But poor crops in those countries and better harvests in traditional wheat-producing regions will see a return to normal trading patterns this year, Lee said.
Barley is the other crop that accounts for a sizeable portion of ABARE’s 21.6 million tonne increase forecast. The agency is predicting a 7.3 million tonne crop, which is more than double last year’s drought-reduced total.
Australia’s barley exports averaged 3.4 million tonnes in the past five years. In 2002-03, that dipped to 2.1 million tonnes, but it should rise to 2.8 million tonnes this crop year, according to the USDA.
ABARE paid little attention to pulses in its report, but Pulse Australia recently released its own market overview.
“Seasonal prospects look good to about average for most of the pulse production areas,” it said.
The sustained high value of the Australian dollar caused farmers to seed fewer pulses than usual. A high domestic dollar means lower export values. That problem is exacerbated for pulses, which are higher-value crops.
But yield increases should more than make up for the slide in acreage.
The organization is predicting a 173,500 tonne desi chickpea crop, up 40,000 tonnes from 2002.
Faba bean growers are expected to harvest 283,000 tonnes, a 175,000-tonne improvement over last year on the same acreage.
Dun pea production is forecast to be up 160 percent to 383,000 tonnes from last year’s 147,500 tonne crop, and with a slightly smaller seeded acreage. White peas should yield 23,500 tonnes, more than triple last year’s 6,500 tonne crop.
But the biggest improvement is in lentils. The 2002 crop produced 45,000 tonnes from 408,000 acres. This year’s lentil crop is expected to yield 207,000 tonnes from 316,000 acres, a 360 percent increase.
Lee said the ABARE and Pulse Australia numbers need to be viewed with one important caveat in mind – the bulk of the winter crop is harvested in November and December so it’s a long way from being in the bin.
