A combination of factors have caused a sharp downward spike in the
bison price graph but industry insiders still expect to see a rising
line on the production side.
Before 2000, bison prices hovered around $6 per kilogram carcass
weight. Since then, the average price dropped by nearly 50 percent.
Gavin Conacher, executive director of the Canadian Bison Association,
said that’s mainly because the production base has expanded faster than
the markets.
Last year’s drought compounded the problem. It forced animals to market
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faster than usual and drove down the carcass value considerably.
But Conacher remains optimistic that prices will rebound and the
Canadian bison herd will continue to grow at a double digit pace for
the remainder of this decade.
His long-term forecast for the industry calls for an increase in herd
size from 204,784 animals in 2001 to more than 1.4 million bison by
2010.
“I really believe that the industry has a great deal of growth left
ahead,” said Conacher, who delivered an industry overview to producers
attending the Federation of Saskatchewan Indian Nations’ agriculture
symposium in Saskatoon Jan. 23-24.
His forecast is based on historical growth rates for the industry but
Conacher admits that may be optimistic given recent circumstances.
His culled cow number for 2001, the base year of the 10-year
projection, is 1,500 animals, but he now believes it will be double
that amount.
The extra 1,500 slaughtered cows could slow his forecasted growth rate
but Conacher still feels the industry has good potential for expansion.
There has been a steady and significant growth in export markets and he
expects to see a seven to 10-fold increase in farmgate sales between
2000 and 2001 once all the numbers are in.
Another reason for his optimism is the extensive marketing initiative
planned for buffalo. The Canadian bison industry will spend $1.26
million, or 3.6 percent of its gross sales, on marketing over the next
year.
Most of the marketing budget comes from a $4 per head levy collected by
the Canadian Bison Marketing Council.
The new promotion program will attempt to reposition bison as a
“heritage meat” and the “new dark meat” and to reclaim the name
buffalo, which seems to have more appeal with consumers.
Even if Conacher’s ambitious production forecast is achieved, bison
meat will still be a drop in the bucket compared to other alternatives.
Had Canadians eaten all the bison meat available in Canada in 1999, it
would have represented only a fraction of one percent of the total red
meat, poultry and fish consumed in the country.
Conacher is forecasting a total slaughter of 147,014 animals in 2010,
including 118,145 two-year old bulls. Those bulls would produce about
32 million kilograms of meat.
“In the red meat industry, that’s nothing. It’s not even going to show
up on the radar screen for a long time.”
Conacher said while the industry is experiencing “a period of
rationalization,” he believes it will be a short one for the country’s
1,500 producers.
Farmers who have extensive backgrounding programs can still break even
but those trying to feed calves are in trouble, said Conacher.
