Statistics Canada’s first satellite-based yield estimate of the year is drawing mixed reaction.
Derek Squair, president of Agri-Trend Marketing, thinks the sky imagery of lush crops failed to capture some of the pod-filling and disease problems on the ground.
Statistics Canada is forecasting a 45 bushel per acre spring wheat crop based on historical yield estimates, satellite imagery and agro-climatic data. Statistics Canada’s July and November yield estimates are based on producer surveys.
The satellite estimate doesn’t take into account weather events after Aug. 31.
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Squair is expecting a 42.5 bu. per acre average, but quality is the real story, as it is with most other crops.
“We’re going to see lots of (No.) 2 and 3 reds this year and very little No. 1 red,” said Squair.
Doug Hilderman, vice-president of grain trading for NorAg Resources, estimates 70 percent of Saskatchewan’s crop and 60 percent of Manitoba’s will be in the No. 2 and No. 3 categories, with little wheat making the top grade.
“There’s quite a bit of mildew and there’s basically no tolerance for that,” he said.
Hilderman believes a lot of the No.2 and No. 3 crop will be sold in the United States, where buyers are not as picky about mildew, so growers might be able to maintain some quality premiums.
He agreed with Statistics Canada’s 45 bu. average, which is well above Saskatchewan Agriculture’s Sept. 8 estimate of 38 bu. However, he believes its canola estimate of 34 bu. per acre is far too low.
“There’s three to four to five bu. an acre that could be added to that,” he said.
Squair has the opposite view. He thinks the crop will average 32 bu.
“If you would have asked me two or three weeks ago, I would say it’s more like 28 or 29, but we’re hearing some better yields as we get into it here,” he said.
“We’re mostly pleasantly surprised with the way the canola is going.”
Neither analyst had a problem with Statistics Canada’s 60 bu. barley estimate, which Squair said that is a disappointing average.
“Barley generally doesn’t handle wet conditions well. It gets a lot of disease in it, so we’re going to have a smaller barley crop this year,” he said.
The durum yield was pegged at 43 bu. per acre, although Squair thinks it could be two or three bu. smaller than that. Durum quality is abysmal. Saskatchewan Agriculture said 79 percent of the crop was falling into the bottom two grades as of Sept. 15.
“That rain just went through at a very bad time for durum, and the market is already reflecting that,” said Squair.
“I think we’ll see $10 a bu. back to the producer here before too long.”
Both analysts felt Statistics Canada’s 40 bu. soybean forecast is too high.
“Beans have taken quite a bit of punishment in the last few weeks with the rain,” said Hilderman.
He is predicting a 32.5 bu. average. Saskatchewan Agriculture said the crop was averaging 22 bu. per acre in that province as of Sept. 8.
Saskatchewan Agriculture said the oat crop was averaging 78 bu., al-though Squair said it could be closer to 80. However, quality will again be the story.
“We’ll see a lot of mildewing in oats this year because it was fairly ripe at the time that those rains came through,” he said.
Flax yields will be disappointing. Squair expects the average to come in close to Saskatchewan Agriculture’s Sept. 8 number of 23 bu.
He expected peas to average 35 bu. per acre, which is slightly above Saskatchewan Agriculture’s 33 bu. number. However, he disagreed with the province’s estimate that 71 percent of the crop will make the top two grades because there is too much earth tag damage.
“I think it’s more like 50 percent.”
He is also more pessimistic about lentil quality. Saskatchewan Agriculture said 61 percent of lentils were in the bottom two grades, but Squair expects that number will be 80 percent by the end of harvest.
He agreed with the province’s yield estimate of 1,341 pounds per acre.
“The hail took a lot of lentils this year. The yields will be all over the map,” said Squair.
