AccuWeather is adding to the growing chorus of weather forecasters calling for a cooler-than-normal summer for much of the Canadian Prairies.
“We expect the cool weather to dominate across the eastern prairie region, which is not good news,” said senior meteorologist Brett Anderson.
“It certainly looks like a slow start to summer across the eastern Prairies.”
Manitoba and eastern Saskatchewan will feel the influence of a low pressure system over Hudson Bay, which will deliver cool conditions throughout June and July.
“Once we get into August, things might flip a little bit,” said Anderson.
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Rainfall is expected to be near normal in the southern portion of the region between Winnipeg and Regina. Farmers further to the north can expect drier conditions.
The forecast for western Alberta calls for warmer-than-normal conditions because of a high pressure system anchored on the West Coast. The warm weather will be most pronounced for areas west of Calgary. It will also be dry in that region.
“As we get further to the east, the influence of the high pressure will be much less,” said Anderson.
He expects eastern Alberta and western Saskatchewan to experience near normal temperatures, although high soil moisture levels could delay the warming that typically happens in June.
“A lot of evaporation is going to be taking place and that’s a cooling process, so we’re going to have to fight through that,” said Anderson.
Eastern Alberta and western Sask-atchewan will likely experience more thunderstorm activity than usual in July, especially in the corridor from Edmonton through Regina.
“That’s going to be the battle zone between the heat to the west under that high pressure ridge and then the cool weather further to the east.”
Despite the increased storm activity, he is forecasting near normal rainfall for the central Prairies.
Anderson is confident in his temperature outlook because the models all seem to be pointing toward a cooler summer in the eastern Prairies.
“Our confidence level is probably a little bit higher than it normally is for a summer forecast,” he said.
Predicting rainfall is trickier be-cause systems come and go and move around, but the general pattern is for drier conditions in the eastern Prairies and near normal for most of the West.
AccuWeather’s forecast comes on the heels of similar outlooks by two other weather service providers.
Environment Canada believes there is a 50 to 60 percent chance of below normal temperatures for the prairie region in May, June and July compared to a 10 to 20 percent chance of above normal temperatures. The U.S. National Weather Service has a comparable outlook.
Anderson said the bottom line is that more doom and gloom is ahead for the eastern Prairies after a nasty winter and horrible spring.
He said it is unusual to have such a widespread chill as Canada has experienced this spring from Alberta through Quebec.
“I’ve never seen it like that before.”
