World crop conditions are a mixed bag this summer.
There is no hint of the type of worldwide wheat production shortfalls that produced high prices this past year.
But huge crops are not expected either, leaving hope that prices may stay attractive for most grains and oilseeds.
After two years of slumping world wheat production, the Canadian Wheat Board expects production to jump above the five year average, to 589 million tonnes from 551 million last year. But production will still fall short of consumption by about five million tonnes.
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EU crop prospects are vastly improved, which could mean fewer canola and durum imports from Canada.
It is a slightly different story for durum.
Wheat board weather analyst David Przednowek said North African farmers are close to harvesting a second bumper crop in a row. North Africa is a major durum consuming region. Large crops there mean reduced imports.
“They’ve had really good conditions two years in a row, which has led them to achieve much above average yields right across the region,” said Przednowek.
That breaks the usual pattern of North Africa, which follows a good crop with a poor crop and is normally the best market for Canadian durum.
“They tend to get more bad years than good years,” he said. “It’s not a well defined pattern, but it’s just the way it’s gone.”
In Spain and Italy, durum quality is being hurt by recent heavy rains.
Turning back to wheat, Russia and Ukraine probably won’t have disastrously small crops like last year, nor are they expected to have huge crops like two years ago, said board weather analyst Guy Ash.
“They’re coming back a little bit, but not to where they were in ’02,” said Ash.
Winter wheat crops growing in Ukraine and Russia suffered little winterkill and are developing well. The wheat board predicts Ukrainian wheat production to rise to 15 million tonnes, up from last year’s four million tonnes, and Russia’s wheat production to rise to 42 million tonnes this year from 33 million last year.
But farther east, in Kazakhstan, the spring wheat crop is in trouble. Dry soils and scorching heat are threatening prospects.
“It’s not very good at all,” said Ash.
“If they don’t get rain within two to three weeks, they’ll have trouble.”
The wheat belt along northern Kazakhstan and southern Siberia is similar to the conditions around Swift Current, Sask., and is seeded at about the same time.
Overall, wheat production in former Soviet Union countries is expected to rise slightly above the five year average to about 81 million tonnes, but come nowhere near the large 2001 and 2002 crops that hurt world wheat prices.
Western European crops have come out of winter with few problems and the wheat board expects an average to above average crop.
China’s winter wheat production is expected to fall again, to its lowest level since 1983. Wheat is losing acres to urbanization and to more profitable crops such as corn and soybeans. Rain last fall also impeded seeding, the board said.
From a peak of more than 120 million tonnes in 1997, Chinese wheat production is expected to be 85 million tonnes this year.
