Russia’s drought-damaged wheat crop appears to be smaller than earlier expected.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture attaché in Moscow puts wheat production at 40.8 million tonnes, down from the official USDA forecast of 42.5 million.
That is also down from last year’s production of 61.7 million tonnes.
We’ve already noted that the drought that slashed production this year could affect 2011 production. The prediction appears to be coming true.
As of Nov. 3, Russian farmers had seeded only 36 million acres of winter crops, down from 43.2 million at the same time last year.
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Farmers who don’t get the job done with winter crops could seed the land next spring if the moisture situation improves, but spring-seeded crops do not yield as high at winter crops.
Production could also be hurt if the weather works against what was sown.
SovEcon, a Moscow based analysis group, says crops seeded late into dry soil are at a higher risk of failing. Luckily for Russian farmers, rain has arrived in recent days, improving soil moisture in large parts of European Russia.
Russia is relying on its neighbours to help top up its grain needs.
Kazakhstan officially produced 13.9 million tonnes of grain, down from a record crop of 20.8 million tonnes the previous year because of drought. Wheat accounted for 87 percent of the crop.
Domestic wheat consumption is less than three million tonnes and last year the country was the world’s seventh largest wheat exporter.
Officials say the country will be able to export about eight million tonnes this year, mostly to neighbouring Russia.
However, SovEcon said there are doubts about the official production estimate, citing as proof rising wheat prices in the country.
The wheat market is also watching dry weather in the U.S. winter wheat belt.
The USDA’s rating for the crop is the lowest in years with only 43 percent in good-to-excellent condition at the start of the month. If it remains dry, it could increase winterkill.
However, fall crop condition is not necessarily a good indicator of final yield.
In 2003 conditions were also bad with 49 percent rating good to excellent, but the final wheat yield was a strong 46.7 bushels per acre.
The year before the fall rating was 58 percent good to excellent and the average yield was only 38.5 bu. per acre.
