Bean crops are struggling in some key production regions around the world but don’t expect rising prices, says an analyst.
Stat Publishing reported from the China Pulse Import and Export Industry Conference that there will likely be a 20 percent reduction in Chinese bean acres and an even bigger decline in production due to drought in the main growing area.
David Streit, agricultural meteorologist with Commodity Weather Group, said it has also been dry in Mexico and Central America due to a strengthening El Nino event.
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China and Mexico are two of the world’s top-five bean producers.
Chuck Penner, analyst with LeftField Commodity Research, thinks production problems in those two countries will not be enough to increase bean prices.
China has become less of a player in bean export markets in recent years.
“I don’t know that (the production curtailment) is going to change the dry bean market all that much,” he said.
Penner has been monitoring the progress of Mexico’s bean crop. He said declining acreage will be more of a factor than a lack of rainfall.
Mexican growers reduced their summer crop plantings by about 10 percent compared to last year due to faltering prices. That is on top of a 30 percent reduction in winter crop production.
Mexico grows pinto and black beans as well as a variety of specialty beans for the Mexican market. He forecasts production will be below the usual 1.2 million tonnes.
However, a record crop in Argentina will offset any losses in Mexico. Penner is forecasting 600,000 tonnes of white and black beans, which is almost double the usual amount.
The upshot is that Canadian growers should look to North American bean production for guidance on where prices are heading.
“This year it’s going to be kind of steady and that’s really what’s going to set the tone, so I’m calling for the bean market to stay relatively flat,” he said.
There might be some downside in black bean prices due to an increase in North American output and some upside in pinto prices due to a contraction in that class of beans but Penner doesn’t expect any dramatic fluctuations.
