The U.S. hard red winter wheat crop is looking good as it heads into dormancy, says an industry official.
“In most places, on average, we’re probably in pretty good shape right now,” said Mark Hodges, executive director of Plains Grains Inc., a company that conducts quality testing of the U.S. winter wheat crop.
The crop got off to a rough start in Oklahoma and Texas due to dry early fall conditions.
The region received rains in recent weeks but they came about two months later than farmers would have liked.
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“Crop development wise, we’re probably not where we would like to be at this point although we are thankful for the moisture that we currently have,” said Hodges of Stillwater, Oklahoma.
Root development and above ground growth are not as good as they were the last couple of years in those two states but the difference is that the crop received some much-needed rain after it emerged.
It is a different story in western Kansas, eastern Colorado and Nebraska where there was much better early fall moisture.
“As a matter of fact, they’ve got probably more growth than they would like to have at this point in the growing season,” he said.
“If those plants get too mature in the fall, they tend to lose those early tillers that are developed, which are normally higher grain-yielding tillers.”
A recent weather system has brought cold conditions to those three states, likely putting an end to crop growth until spring.
Hodges feels that while conditions are variable, the crop is generally in good shape heading into dormancy. If Oklahoma and Texas receive a few days of warm weather, it could improve crop development in those key states.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates 55 percent of the U.S. winter wheat crop was in good to excellent condition as of Nov. 29, compared to 58 percent a year ago. Nine percent is in poor to very poor condition, compared to 10 percent a year ago.
Informa Economics estimates U.S. winter wheat plantings at 38.7 million acres, down from 39.5 million acres last year. It is the smallest crop since 2010.
Hodges thinks that sounds about right.
“We would expect acres to be level to maybe slightly lower really based on price more than anything else,” he said.
The price of wheat is below the cost of production for many wheat farmers.
“If you talk to a producer, his biggest concern is going to be price,” said Hodges.
One mitigating factor is the high cattle prices that encouraged cattle producers to graze more animals. Growers from southern Kansas south are able to graze cattle on their winter wheat crops.
The high cattle prices may have prompted some of those growers to put in more wheat acres. But it didn’t pay off this year because there was limited forage production due to the dry conditions.
